Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
227 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2003

SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THRU 00Z THU)...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
CONTINUES FOR NW ZONES UNTIL 3AM MAINLY ALONG THE MOIST/INSTABILITY
AXIS WHICH WAS ORIENTED N-S ACROSS THE RIO GRAND PLAINS. BLV THE
WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED OUT WEST THRU THE AM HOURS CONSIDERING THE
RADAR TRENDS. FARTHER EAST...SFC MOISTURE DIVERGENCE WILL PREVENT
STORMS FROM BREAKING THE CAP. THUS WILL CONFIGURE SLGT CHC POPS EAST
TO GOOD CHC WEST THRU THE MORNING HOURS. SFC WINDS HAVE BACKED
AROUND TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO SFC LOW DVLPG NEAR THE
COAST...HOWEVER MAIN COLD PUSH STILL HANGING BACK TO THE NORTH OF
OUR CWA AND WAITING FOR THE S/W TO PASS. FRONT SHOULD RACE OFF THE
COAST BEFORE 12Z WITH WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. WILL GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES MAINLY FOR GUSTS OVER
35 MPH.  WILL ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR ALL ZONES FOR THIS AFTN
CONSIDERING THE STRONG DRY ADVECTION EXPECTED. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE RH VALUES WHICH WILL BE BASED ON HOW QUICKLY THE
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS AFTN...THEREFORE WILL LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE
WHETHER TO UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING. MAIN POS TILT UPR TROF
WILL FINALLY SWING THRU AROUND BY 00Z WED REINFORCING THE CAA OVER
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MOST OF WED.

LONG-TERM(00Z THU THRU MON)...WINDS WILL DROP OFF WED NIGHT AS SFC
RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER AREA. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS
ANTICIPATE GOOD NOCTURNAL RADIATION. RECORD LOW OF 43 DEGREES AT CRP
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER THROUGH REMAINDER
OF WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY. SRN JETSTREAM WILL
APPROACH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AGAIN THU AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME
CIRRUS THU/FRI. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS SAT MORNING AS SFC
HIGH MOVES THROUGH NRN GULF. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WINDS SUN/MON AS GFS
INDICATES TIGHTENING PGF BETWEEN HIGH OVER NE GULF AND DEEPENING SFC
LOW OVER NRN PLAINS. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NOT UNTIL TUE WHEN WEST
COAST TROUGH MOVES EAST.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
CRP NU 066/043 070/041 075 300
VCT EU 065/039 069/038 075 200
LRD EU 067/045 072/046 078 500

.CRP...SVR TSTM WATCH FOR TXZ229>231-239-240 THRU 3 AM.
       SCA GMZ-230-235-250-255-270-275.
       WIND ADVISORY TXZ242>247 THRU 5PM.
       FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY ALL ZONES.

75/JM...SHORT-TERM
76/JR...LONG-TERM

TXZ229>234-239>247-081100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
200 PM CDT MON APR 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF A COTULLA TO VICTORIA LINE.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS.  MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
A COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.  SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD ALSO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

AP/JR/TR

TXZ229>231-239-240-080800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1020 PM CDT MON APR 7 2003

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
VALID UNTIL 300 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING. THE WATCH INCLUDES THE
COUNTIES OF DUVAL...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN AND WEBB. SOME
CITIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH ARE BENAVIDES...COTULLA...ENCINAL...
GEORGE WEST...LAREDO...THREE RIVERS AND TILDEN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF A
PENNY OR LARGER...STRONG WINDS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER AND EVEN
TORNADOES.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION. RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE
READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA. IF
SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS YOUR AREA...THEN MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM
AND LAY DOWN ON THE FLOOR. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...LAY FLAT DOWN ON THE
GROUND...PREFERABLY IN A DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT. NEVER TRY TO OUTRUN
SEVERE WEATHER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

GW

TXZ229>231-239-240-080900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
301 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2003

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 3 AM HAS EXPIRED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 300 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
HAS EXPIRED. THE COUNTIES OF DUVAL...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN
AND WEBB ARE NO LONGER IN THE WATCH.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS THROUGH 5
AM...MAINLY OVER WEBB AND LASALLE COUNTIES.  LARGE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

GW