Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
250 AM CST SAT FEB 15 2003

SHORT-TERM (TODAY)...THE BEST DYNAMICS WL BE DURING THE FIRST PART
OF TDA AS THE BROAD MID/UPR TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EWD.
CONVECTION WL BE AIDED BY A 100 KNOT JET EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST.
SVRL WK SFC BOUNDARIES WL EXIST ACROSS THE CWFA AS WELL...HELPING TO
ORGANIZE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.  THE BOTTOMLINE IS POPS WL BE KEPT
HIGH.  THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE INDICATES SOME SMALL HAIL WL BE
POSSIBLE WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS.  HOWEVER...THINK THE SVR
THREAT IS LOW AND WL LKLY REMOVE THIS FROM THE FIRST PD GIVEN THAT
IT WL BE ISOLATED IF IT HAPPENS.  WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PCPN
LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND THEN MOST AREAS WL SEE
SOME LETUP BY NOON.  ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
LATE IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF THE COLD FNT.  LAPSE RATES WL STILL BE
STEEP WITH THE COLD TROUGH OVERHEAD AND STILL PLENTY OF RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AROUND.  WINDS WL BE ALL OVER THE PLACE TDA AND WL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THE CURRENT SCA FOR THE WATERS.  WL DROP ALL FLAGS
AND GO WITH MUCH WEAKER WINDS.  TEMPS WL BE TRICKY BUT THINK MOST
AREAS WL SEE MID/UPR 70S ONCE THE PCPN LETS UP LATER TDA.

LONG-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRI)...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
THERMODYNAMICALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE RESIDING OVER THE FA AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.  FEEL MODEL QPF IS UNDER-DONE AND WILL INCR
POPS TO LOW END CHC OVER THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE AND SFC CONVERGENCE
ARE HIGHEST.  DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK BUT WILL ADD MENTION OF TS
DUE TO VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS.  FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CWA
BY MIDNIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR.  WILL CONFINE MENTION OF
BREEZY TO THE COAST AND SCAS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THE MWA.

MAIN CHANGE THIS FORECAST FOR SUN THRU TUE WILL BE TO LOWER TEMPS
ACROSS THE BOARD.  GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING ON SUN WILL
HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S...WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT OCCURRING ON SUN
NIGHT DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING PARAMETERS.  SCA WILL BE
DROPPED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES BY LATE SUN.  FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN
RETURN BY WED AS SFC MOISTURE LAYER DEEPENS IN SELY FLOW AHEAD OF
WEAK/DYING FRONTAL SYSTEM.  WILL FCST SCEC OFFSHORE ON WED.  WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA THU DUE TO PROX OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DESPITE RESERVATIONS.  ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF
NEXT POWERFUL SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS BEING FASTER.  WILL INSERT A
SLGT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA FRI...AS CURRENT MODEL SOLNS SHOW DYNAMICS FOR
SVR WX OVER MUCH OF OK/TX WITH THE CWA BEING ON THE TAIL END.

CRP TB  076/044 057/038 064 630
VCT TB  075/041 054/035 063 730
LRD TB  079/046 060/040 068 5-0

.CRP...NONE.

80/MB..SHORT-TERM
92/TR..LONG-TERM

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-151200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
518 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS OF SOUTH TEXAS...FROM COTULLA TO VICTORIA.  DAMAGING WINDS AND
EVEN LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ALL THE WATERS DUE TO
THE STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS.  WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WILL
BE COMMON OVER THE WATERS.  WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND TODAY AS WINDS AVERAGE BETWEEN
20 AND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY.  SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
BE STRONG AND MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE POSTED FOR ALL THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
PREVAILS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS.