Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
335 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2003

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH 00Z MON)...TSRA ACTIVITY ON THE INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN THIS AM. MODELS SHOW UPPER LOW SHIFTING SLIGHTLY NW AND
LOW LEV WINDS INCREASING TODAY...RESULTING IN MOISTURE PUSHING TO
THE NW BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR NRN TIER OF
CWA AND CHC POPS S THIS AM...THEN TAPERING OFF FROM S TO N THRU THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SE WEBB AND DUVAL COUNTIES HAVE RECEIVED COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVR THE PAST FEW DAYS...FEEL TODAYS RAIN WILL
BE ON THE MOVE AND ANY FLOODING WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED AND NOT
WIDESPREAD TO WARRANT A FFA ATTM. MODELS KEEP UPPER TROF OVR MEX/W
TX WITH HIGHER POOL OF MOISTURE NEAR THE NW CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH UPPER DIV AND SFC CONV. THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE
CHC POPS NW CWA AND SLGT CHC NE AND S CWA THRU SUN. WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL GO SLGHTLY BELOW CLIMO ON TEMPS WITH WARMER
TEMPS ON SUN AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE NW. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
TODAY WITH MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DVLPG BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

LONG-TERM...GFS TAKES UPPER LOW INTO LA BY TUESDAY...THEN
RETROGRADES IT.  IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...WE COULD HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN MORE TOWARD MID WEEK THAN EARLIER.
HOWEVER...GFS STILL KEEPS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK.  AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW
AND INTRODUCE POPS IN FOR THURSDAY BUT ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR NOW.  WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR FRIDAY THOUGH HAVE THE FEELING
DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO PUT SOME POPS IN AS GFS IS SHOWING DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW (BUT RH FIELDS LOW) AND UPPER HIGH IS IN OKLAHOMA
PERHAPS A BIT TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY MAJOR SUBSIDENCE.  WE SHALL SEE.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
CRP TB 088/078 092/076 090 622
VCT TB 088/076 092/074 090 622
LRD TB 090/077 095/076 093 633

.CRP...NONE.

81/TE...SHORT-TERM
86/GW...LONG-TERM

TXZ229>234-239>247-051100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
545 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED BY
MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING OVER THE GULF WATERS AND MOVE INLAND...
MAINLY AFFECTING THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTH TEXAS. THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 OR MORE INCHES POSSIBLE. AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 1/2 INCH FOR THOSE WHO RECEIVE
RAINFALL. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE
TODAY FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED FUNNEL CLOUD COULD NOT
BE RULED OUT DURING THE DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST ON MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...BUT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GW/TE