Special Marine Warning 2, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
318PM EST FRI MAR 28 2003

AT UPR LVLS FULL LAT TROF SETS UP BY 24 HRS FM HUDSONS BAY TO TX.
THIS TROF GRDLY LIFTS OUT TO NE CROSSING LWR LKS AT 60 HRS. AT SFC
LOW OVR LMIC MOVS WELL NE OF THE AREA BY 12Z SAT.

MDLS APPEAR TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAJOR FEATURES FOR 1ST
24 HRS. PARAMETERS LINED UP PRETTY WELL  PLENTY OF PVA APPCHG GOOD
MSTR AND PLENTY OF UVV. GOING TO GET WET TNGT. SVR POTENTIAL DOESNT
REALLY LOOK THAT GREAT. WINDS LIKELY TO BE PRETTY STIFF LATE AFTN
THRU EVE. WILL BE CONSIDERING A WIND ADVSRY FOR TNGT, BUT WITH
TIMING MAY HV TO KEEP IT MAINLY WRN AREAS. MDLS ALL PULL MSTR OUT
PRETTY RPDLY TMW BUT STILL ENUF THERE TO GO WITH A LKLY TO CAT POP
OVER ERN SXNS SAT AM.  DRY SAT AFTN BUT SOME MDLS BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF MSTR UP INTO THE AREA. THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCTD WITH THE EAST CST
SYS AND REALLY APPEARS TO BE CONSIDERABLY OVRDN. NGM SEEMS TO BE THE
MOST OVRDN. ADDNL PVA MOVG ACRS ON SUN WL PRBBLY NECESSITATE AT
LEAST SOME CHC POPS OVR ERN SXN FOR RW/SW.

GUID TMPS VARY A BIT WITH NGM A LTL WRMR THAN REST. WL PRBBLY LN
TWDS COOLER READINGS 1ST 3 PDS AND MDL OF THE RD FOR 4TH PD.  MDLS
DO AGREE THAT WONT BE MUCH TMP RISE DURG DAY SAT. HARD PART WILL BE
DETERMINING HOW LOW WE GET TNGT, THEN WORK FM THERE.

.CLE...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.

VRCEK

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-281315-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
610 AM EST FRI MAR 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN OHIO
AND A PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN OHIO
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027-028-036-290215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
710 PM EST FRI MAR 28 2003

...GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING...

WINDS WILL GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND SOME LIGHTNING AND
THUNDER ARE ALSO LIKELY. WINDS WILL COME FROM THE SOUTH AND SHIFT TO
THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

THE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KNOCK DOWN A FEW WEAK BRANCHES AND
TO BLOW AROUND LIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE OR TRASH CANS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA.

KOSARIK