Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1000 AM EST WED NOV 19 2003

.PUBLIC...
WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE TORNADO WATCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS IT
EXPIRES AT 10 AM. SECOND TORNADO WATCH FOR CHARLESTON, BERKELEY AND
DORCHESTER COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 1 PM.

MOST IMPRESSIVE ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING
THROUGH THE TRI COUNTY AREA OF THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA. VERY
LITTLE IF ANY LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED WITH THIS LINE. BIGGEST
THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
IS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AS THE LINE MOVES TOWARDS WARMER AND
MOISTER AIR ALONG THE SC COAST. LATEST RADAR TREND INIDICATES SOME
PORTIONS OF THE LINE ARE INTENSIFYING.

PRECIP HAS ACTUALLY HAD A STABILIZING EFFECT ON WINDS IN MANY AREAS
OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE CWA AS OBS BEHIND THE MAIN BAND INDICATE
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED OFF 15 DEGREES OR SO WITH WINDS DROPPING TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTN...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY COMING INTO LINE
WITH FCST. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IN
EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ENOUGH SUN IN THIS AREA TO ALLOW FOR
MUCH INTENSIFICATION OF THAT CONVECTION.

SOME MODIFICATIONS WILL BE MADE TO LOWER MAX TEMPS MAINLY FOR THE
INLAND GA PORTION AS TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 60S AND DO
NOT THINK THEY WILL RECOVER INTO THE 70S. MAX TEMPS FOR THOSE AREAS
WAS THIS MORNING.

WILL LOWER INLAND GA POPS TO LIKELY AS SOME BREAKS IN PRECIP HAVE
BEEN NOTED ON RADAR. WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.

&&

.MARINE...GRADUALLY WATCHING LINE OF SHRA/WIND MOVE FROM LAND
THROUGH THE WATERS. REPORTS FROM BUOYS AND PILOT BOATS RIGHT IN LINE
WITH GOING FCST...SEAS AROUND 8 FT AND WINDS AROUND 25KT. XPCT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THIS AFTN ONCE FRONT MOVES THRU AND THIS IDEA
IS COVERED IN THE FCST SO WILL ONLY MAKE COSMETIC CHANGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...SCA AMZ354-374.
SC...SCA AMZ330-350-352.
     WIND ADVISORY LAKE MOULTRIE SCZ045.

&&

SLF/JPC

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>051-191200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
445 AM EST WED NOV 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA.  A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. REFER TO
THE LATEST WATCHES AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.

.LAKE WINDS...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST THIS
AFTERNOON ON LAKE MOULTRIE. REFER TO THE LATEST RECREATIONAL
FORECAST FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING.

SCW

GAZ101-116>119-138>141-SCZ042>044-047>049-051-191415-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
828 AM EST WED NOV 19 2003

...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT
EFFINGHAM COUNTY...DORCHESTER COUNTY...HAMPTON COUNTY...JASPER
COUNTY...BEAUFORT COUNTY...MCINTOSH COUNTY...BRYAN COUNTY...CHATHAM
COUNTY...LIBERTY COUNTY AND COLLETON COUNTY THROUGH 915 AM EST...

AT 828 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES SOUTH OF
BAMBERG TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF RIDGELAND IN SOUTH CAROLINA...TO 9
MILES SOUTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD TO 19 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HINESVILLE
IN GEORGIA. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS LINE WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND
TILLMAN...GRAYS...CUMMINGS...JASPER...HARDEEVILLE...SAVANNAH...KELLER
AND SUNBURY THROUGH 915 AM EST.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

MOVE INSIDE A SAFE LOCATION UNTIL THIS ACTIVITY PASSES TO THE EAST.

PM

GAZ119-SCZ043>045-048>050-191500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
912 AM EST WED NOV 19 2003

...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT
BERKELEY...DORCHESTER...CHARLESTON...BEAUFORT...CHATHAM AND COLLETON
COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 AM EST...

AT 912 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FROM 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SAINT GEORGE TO 8 MILES NORTH OF BEAUFORT TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SAVANNAH. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS LINE WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND MONCKS
CORNER...RIDGEVILLE...JACKSONBORO...NORTH CHARLESTON...BEAUFORT...
EDISTO BEACH...HILTON HEAD AND TYBEE ISLAND THROUGH 1000 AM EST.

AS THE LINE PASSED THROUGH LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE WEST...WIND
GUSTS REACHED NEAR 40 MPH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES RAPIDLY EAST.

MOVE INSIDE IF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

$$M

SCZ044-045-049-050-191530-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
949 AM EST WED NOV 19 2003

...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT
BERKELEY...DORCHESTER...CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES THROUGH
1030 AM EST...

AT 949 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SAINT STEPHEN TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF SUMMERVILLE TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF
EDISTO BEACH. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS LINE WILL PRODUCE WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...AND AFFECT LOCATIONS
IN AND AROUND SUMMERVILLE...MONCKS CORNER...RAVENEL...NORTH
CHARLESTON...DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...HUGER...JAMESTOWN...SEABROOK
ISLAND AND ISLE OF PALMS THROUGH 1030 AM EST.

YOU ARE URGED TO GET INSIDE A SAFE LOCATION UNTIL THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PASSES TO THE EAST.

THIS ACTIVITY ALSO POSES A RISK TO BOATERS ON LAKE MOULTRIE. YOUR
BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO REMAIN IN PORT...OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.