Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2003

.PUBLIC...FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. CONVECTION THAT WAS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS MORNING HAS BEEN HOLDING TOGETHER BUT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
EAST. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT
AND INSTABILITY. WILL CARRY 50 POPS ALL AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND
EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING ANOTHER FAST MOVING
BUT DRY FRONT TO PASS THROUGH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE RIDGE REBUILDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND THE AXIS SHIFTS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE
HIGH SPLITS IN TWO AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS ONE SO WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK TO BE CLEAR AND DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS IN CONTROL.

&&

MARINE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY ACRS THE SE AND INTO MY
WATERS ON SCHEDULE...WITH A PASSAGE BETWEEN 00Z-03Z SAT. WINDS AT
THE BUOYS CONTINUING TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE 120-140 DEG RANGE AND
MAY CONTINUE TO VEER S AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT
TO NW-N BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. PRES GRAD SHOULD THEN TIGHTEN
DURING THE EARLY AM HOURS AND REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH THE DAY
TMRW...BRINGING WINDS FROM 10-15KT TO A 15-20KT RANGE. SEAS WILL
ALSO BECOME A BIT ROUGHER...POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE 5FT AREA BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. GRAD REMAINS STRONG SUN INTO MON AS THE SFC HIGH PRES
SLIDES TO THE N WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT TO THE S...KEEPING THE
WIND SPEEDS UP UNDER A MORE NE-E FLOW. DO NOT EXPECT SEAS OR WINDS
TO BREACH CRITERIA LEVELS SO WILL NOT RUN WITH ANY HEADLINES ATTM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

AUSTIN/JPC

AMZ330-350-352-354-370-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>051-171600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
940 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BY MID-AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF
50 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

JPC

GAZ088-SCZ040-180015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
723 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SCREVEN COUNTY AND ALLENDALE
COUNTY THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

AT 723 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
8 MILES NORTH OF ALLENDALE TO 12 MILES NORTH OF SYLVANIA...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
AREAS IN AND AROUND
MARTIN...BALDOCK...AVERILL...MILLHAVEN...HILLTONIA...MILBURY...APPLET
ON...SEIGLING...BARTON AND ALLENDALE THROUGH 815 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

PY

SCZ040-180015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
729 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ALLENDALE COUNTY THROUGH 815 PM
EDT...

AT 729 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
6 MILES NORTH OF ALLENDALE TO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ALLENDALE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND
BALDOCK...APPLETON...SEIGLING...MILBURY...ALLENDALE...SYCAMORE...BART
ON AND FAIRFAX THROUGH 815 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

PY