Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
245 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS ERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF ERN TN THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT WILL NOT LIMIT
CONVECTION TO EARLY EVENING. ON SUNDAY...EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROF
BEGINS SETTING UP AGAIN AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE MOVING THRU THE AREA SUN
EVENING/SUN NIGHT. ADDITIONAL IMPULSES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROF INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL MAKE TIMING A
LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE PRECIP. A MOIST UNSTABLE SW FLOW
WILL CONT OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF SFC FRONT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. MODELS TRY TO BRING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THRU SC AND GA
ON TUES...ACTUALLY TAKING IT S OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. STILL A LITTLE
SKEPTICAL ABOUT FRONT HOLDING TOGETHER THAT FAR SOUTH. WITH THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THRU THE PERIOD AND NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE LOWS
WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS SUGGESTING THAT
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A CUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AFTER TUES AS
THICKNESSES HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT DECREASE.

MARINE...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING A
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...SAGGING WELL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS BY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL UNLIKELIHOOD OF SUCH AN
EVENT...HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE OF CONTINUED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE GA WATERS...WITH A VARIABLE WIND OVER THE SC WATERS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT.
NO FLAGS.

.CHS...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

30/JR

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>051-160945-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
349 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.RIVER FLOODING...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE EDISTO
RIVER AT GIVHANS FERRY...THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT CLYO...THE LOWER
SANTEE AT JAMESTOWN...THE OHOOPEE RIVER AT REIDSVILLE AND THE
OGEECHEE RIVER AT EDEN. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RIVER FLOODING...RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENT AND THE
LATEST RIVER FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SCZ044-045-161915-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
212 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BERKELEY COUNTY AND DORCHESTER
COUNTY INCLUDING LAKE MOULTRIE THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 212 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CENTERED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF DUNCAN CHAPEL...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTH
OF SAINT GEORGE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN
AND AROUND REEVESVILLE...MOUNT ZION...DUNCAN CHAPEL...SPRING HILL...
SANDRIDGE...EBENEZER...HUSSERTOWN...BLACK CREEK...PRIOLEAU...
MOOREFIELD...EADYTOWN...CROSS ROADS AND BONNEAU THROUGH 315 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS TO BOATER SAFETY. YOUR BEST
COURSE OF ACTION DURING A THUNDERSTORM IS TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR...BUT
IF YOU ARE CAUGHT ON THE OPEN LAKE WATER...STAY BELOW DECK...AND IF
POSSIBLE...AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED METAL OBJECTS.