Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
220 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003

AIRMASS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS/CSRA BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
LI AROUND -4 AND CAPE ABOUT 1500 J/KG. WATCHING VORT MAX OVER
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA ON SATELLITE MOVING NORTHEAST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. VORT MAX ACTING AS TRIGGER...MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTION OF MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. SEA BREEZE FRONT
DEVELOPING AGAIN TODAY...MAY INTERACT WITH CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN
MIDLANDS THIS EVENING. WILL PUT REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD
FOR LIKELY POPS...THEN GOOD CHANCE UNTIL AROUND 1000 PM...THEN
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR...MAINLY MID
LEVELS...TRIES TO MOVE INTO REGION SUNDAY...RESULTING IN MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...K INDEX REMAINS ABOVE 30 WITH CONTINUED HIGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. TRIGGER...HARD TO FIND BUT UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH CONTINUED WEAK SHORT WAVES LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD
SOUTH CAROLINA...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS...MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN NORTH CAROLINA ALONG STATIONARY FRONT. LOOKS
LIKE WARMER TEMPS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LESS CLOUDINESS
OVERALL.

EXTENDED...UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN STATES
MONDAY/TUESDAY HAS LESS AMPLITUDE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. UPPER
LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO MIDWEST...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ALONG
MID ATLANTIC STATES DOES NOT APPEAR TO BUILD SOUTH INTO
MIDLANDS...I.E. LEANING AWAY FROM COLD AIR DAMMING FOR
REGION...LOOKS LIKE AREA IN WARM SECTION TUE AND WED...WILL RAISE
HIGHS A LITTLE AND CONTINUE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MIDWEST UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COLD FRONT EXPECTED...WITH DRIER
AIR FOR SATURDAY.

FCSTID =   19
CAE   72  90  72  91 /  50  40  40  50
AGS   71  90  70  91 /  50  40  40  50
SSC   71  90  71  91 /  50  40  40  50
OGB   71  90  71  91 /  50  40  40  50

.CAE...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

AWP

SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-GAZ040-063>065-
077-142038-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
538 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
TODAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

RIVER FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED HOWEVER STAGES ALONG THE CONGAREE REMAIN
ELEVATED DUE TO UPSTREAM RESERVOIR RELEASES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TA