Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
307 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

DISC:  18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK TROF ALONG THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.

SATELLITE SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. 88D SHOWS SHRA/TSRA CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS/ETA IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE AREA
SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE POSITIONS AND TIMING...BUT BOTH
CONTINUE THE SUMMERTIME TREND OF TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US. AS FOR EXTENDED...PATTERN CONTINUES.
SPC HAS AREA IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.
LOOKS AS THOUGH BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. RUC/MESOETA
SHOWS S/W TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. MESOETA HAS
ENERGY A BIT FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL BEST FOCUS ACROSS NORTHERN
CWA. ON WEDNESDAY...TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MODELS SHOW
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH BETTER UPPER SUPPORT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROF. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL EQUATIONS SIMILAR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BOTH POPS AND TEMPERATURES AND WILL NOT
DIFFER MUCH FROM CONSENSUS NUMBERS.

FCSTID =   77
CAE   72  90  72  88 /  30  40  30  50
AGS   70  90  70  88 /  30  40  30  50
SSC   72  89  72  87 /  30  40  30  50
OGB   71  90  71  88 /  30  40  30  50

.CAE...
GA...NONE.
SC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 700 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES
SCC025...SCC039...SCC055...SCC057...SCC061...SCC063...SCC071...
SCC079...SCC081...SCC085.

LCV

SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-GAZ040-063>065-
077-051501-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
501 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
A WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
AND TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL TO 1 INCH AND
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WEDNESDAY AND STALL
OVER THE AREA.  THIS, COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM, WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

SJN

SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-GAZ040-063>065-
077-052013-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
213 PM EDT TUE AUG 05 2003

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED NEAR EDGEFIELD IN EDGEFIELD
COUNTY. THE STORM WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15 MILES PER HOUR.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUST TO 45 MILES PER HOUR...
HAIL TO ONE HALF INCH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THIS STORM WILL MOVE
IN TO EASTERN SALUDA...NORTHWEST AIKEN AND SOUTHWEST LEXINGTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 4 PM.

THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH 5 PM.