Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Billings, MT

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
841 PM MDT TUE JUN 03 2003

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

UPDATE TO WRKAFP AND ZFP. VERY INTERESTING UPDATE THIS EVENING AS STRONG
UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT START TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
MONTANA. FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH GLASGOW AND LEWISTOWN AT THIS TIME.
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT...WITH
INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE IN FERGUS AND GARFIELD COUNTIES AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH AND EAST. WILL GO AHEAD AN PAINT IN SWATH OF LIKELY POPS CHASING
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTO MLS BY 5Z AND THEN
PUSH ACROSS REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST ZONES AFTER THAT. TOUGHEST CALL IS
HOW FAR WEST TO PUT HIGHER POPS AS NEW ETA LOOKS TO BE TOO WET TOO FAR
WEST BASED ON INITIALIZATION...AND WILL GO WITH CURRENT RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS KEEPING HIGHEST POPS IN EASTERN ZONES...BUT WILL UP
POPS IN CENTRAL ZONES FROM 20S TO 40S ON THE EDGE OF BETTER
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WILL ALSO ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND WIND BASED ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS. RASCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING EFFECT
OF FIRST SYSTEM HANGING ON IN THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SECOND SYSTEM BEGINS TO WORK INTO NORTHERN MONTANA LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE SEEMS TO BE A DRY PERIOD FOR SOUTHERN MONTANA IN BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT DRY THINGS OUT COMPLETELY AND LEAVE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR A FEW HOURS. MODELS CONTINUING TO
PROVIDE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN PUSH OF SECOND SYSTEM THROUGH
SATURDAY...THOUGH TODAYS RUNS ARE A LITTLE DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WILL LEAVE GOING POPS AS IS SINCE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES
BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS. STRONG UPPER RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TAKES ITS TIME WORKING ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND TODAY IS PROGGED
TO MOVE ONSHORE ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SLOWER
EASTWARD PUSH OF THE RIDGE WOULD DELAY WARMUP THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
TEMPS ALREADY PLAY THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS SO WILL LEAVE THEM
ALONE AT THIS TIME. MACZKO

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 043/062 044/064 039/059 040/066 042/071 045/075 048/072
    43/W    44/W    44/R    43/R    30/B    00/B    03/W
LVM 040/061 040/059 034/057 037/065 037/070 040/074 043/071
    02/W    24/W    44/R    43/R    30/E    00/B    03/W
HDN 043/062 042/064 038/058 040/066 042/071 045/075 048/072
    44/W    44/W    44/R    43/R    30/B    00/B    03/W
MLS 043/062 046/061 040/055 041/066 039/071 044/075 045/072
    64/W    66/W    44/R    43/R    30/B    00/B    03/W
4BQ 045/063 046/061 039/056 042/065 040/070 045/074 045/071
    64/W    65/W    44/R    43/R    30/B    00/B    03/W
BHK 042/060 043/059 037/056 040/064 039/069 043/073 043/070
    64/W    66/W    44/R    43/R    30/B    00/B    03/W
SHR 040/060 042/062 038/054 039/065 038/070 042/074 044/071
    44/W    44/W    44/R    43/R    30/B    00/B    03/W

.BYZ...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

MTZ028>042-056>058-WYZ098-099-041230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
635 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL...SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...
RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE THIS MORNING DUE TO
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OF THE LAST TWO DAYS. HOWEVER...MANY RIVERS
ARE STILL NEAR FLOOD STAGE AND AS A RESULT SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL RIVER LEVELS HAVE RECEDED TO THE POINT
THAT FLOODING NO LONGER POSES A THREAT. CHECK THE LATEST GTFFLSBYZ
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE FLOOD SITUATION.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RECEDE THROUGH THE WEEK AS COLDER
WEATHER MOVES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL
FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR EXTENDED PERIODS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PREVENTING MUCH IF ANY SNOW MELT TO OCCUR. AS A RESULT RIVERS SHOULD
RECEDE TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WCJIN-WYNW-WYNE