Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Billings, MT

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
311 PM MDT MON AUG 11 2003

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
CONTINUED HOT WEATHER IN STORE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES VERY LITTLE AND A WEAK FRONT TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S TUE AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z-18Z...YET
READINGS WILL REBOUND TO THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S WED. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH AN UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WHILE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON TUE AND THEN BACK
TO THE WEST BY WED. DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE THE RESULT WITH
GUSTY WINDS IF DEVELOPMENT TRULY OCCURS AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS OVER THE REGION. OTHERWISE WILL GO WITH A STATUS QUO FORECAST.
SPRINGER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THURSDAY AS A
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PACNW.  THE TROUGH IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE TROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY. 00Z GFS WAS A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH
THAN THE NEW 12Z RUN.  GFS ENSEMBLES ALSO HINT THE WAVE MAY BE WEAKER
AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE WAVE WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. SO THE FORECAST COOL
DOWN MAY BE TOO MUCH...BUT VALUES ARE CURRENTLY AT OR ABOVE MODEL
GUIDANCE. WILL LEAVE THE NUMBERS ALONE...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
NUDGE THE VALUES BACK CLOSER TO PERSISTANCE.  MORE ZONAL FLOW IS
FORECAST BY THE GFS/ECMWF INTO MONDAY...BUT AGAIN THE ENSEMBLES INDICATE
A WEAK RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. FORECAST FOR SUN AND MONDAY ARE
STILL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH IS REASONABLE. CHANCE OF RAIN
DOESNT LOOK THAT GREAT THU THROUGH MONDAY. BEST SHOT SEEMS TO BE FRIDAY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY SLIM. WILL KEEP
POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
FRIDAY.  MOORE

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 069/099 067/099 069/098 064/090 063/088 061/089 061/090
    32/T    20/G    00/G    00/G    00/B    00/B    00/G
LVM 055/095 054/095 052/091 051/087 051/084 051/085 052/086
    33/T    32/T    20/G    00/B    00/U    00/B    00/B
HDN 067/101 065/101 067/100 062/092 061/089 059/091 059/092
    32/T    20/G    00/G    00/G    00/B    00/G    00/G
MLS 069/101 067/101 067/101 062/092 061/089 059/089 059/091
    20/G    20/G    00/G    00/G    00/B    00/B    00/G
4BQ 069/101 067/101 065/098 059/091 060/088 058/088 058/091
    32/T    20/G    00/G    00/G    00/B    00/B    00/G
BHK 065/098 064/098 064/095 058/088 059/086 057/086 057/088
    20/G    20/G    00/G    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
SHR 059/099 057/099 062/099 057/090 059/088 056/089 057/090
    22/T    20/G    00/G    00/G    00/B    00/B    00/G

.BYZ...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

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