Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Billings, MT

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
145 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2003

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
WEAK ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA TONIGHT WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER SHOT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE HEADING TOWARDS
SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA SO POPS HERE THROUGH THE EVENING LOOK ON
TRACK. HOWEVER...DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE SO DO NOT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. CURRENT PRECIP ACROSS NORTHEAST SHOULD EXIT
AREA BY EARLY EVENING AND WILL DRY THINGS OUT HERE. REMAINING ACTIVITY
WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH IS HANDLED
WELL IN CURRENT GRIDS. TOMORROW RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST...
SHUTTING DOWN MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LINGER POPS IN FAR
SOUTH MAINLY FOR COORDINATION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH THICKNESSES AND 700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING
UNDER BUILDING RIDGE...WITH MOST AREAS AROUND 90 DEGREES.

RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO MONDAY AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES INTO THE
90S AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DRY FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
STRONG RIDGE KEEPING ANY WAVES NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL RAISE LOW
TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BASED ON LOW TEMPS OVER PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS. NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS AM NOT EXPECTING
SUBSTANTIAL WINDS OR DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW TWENTY PERCENT IN MANY AREAS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS HOT AND DRY PATTERN REESTABLISHES ITSELF. JZ

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
ESSENCE OF GOING PACKAGE STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
REBOUNDING WEST OF THE AREA. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE THAT GFS HAS
MOVING THROUGH THIS RIDGE OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. BELIEF IS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE IS TOO STRONG PRESENTLY TO
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION THEN. MOREOVER...MONSOONAL FLOW THEN DOES NOT LOOK
THAT PROMISING. THE PRESENT PACKAGE DOES INDICATE A POSSIBILITY FOR
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. GFS SHOWS THAT THE PATTERN IS SHIFTING
SOMEWHAT TO ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF MONSOONAL FLOW THEN. HOWEVER...GFS
SHOWS THIS TO HAPPEN SOMEWHAT LATER. DID NOT TINKER WITH WHAT WE HAVE
GOING THEN. SATURDAY SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER SCENARIO FOR A RETURN OF
MONSOONAL FLOW. MOST OF THIS FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL AFFECT THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AND ON SOUTH. DID NOT TINKER
WITH THE TEMPERATURES. THESE LOOK REASONABLE AND LINE UP FAIRLY WELL.
CHB

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062/091 065/095 066/093 062/097 066/100 064/097 062/089
    20/G    00/G    00/G    00/G    00/G    03/T    33/T
LVM 056/091 058/094 058/092 058/098 061/099 059/096 057/083
    30/G    00/G    00/G    00/G    00/G    03/T    33/T
HDN 060/092 063/097 064/092 061/099 062/102 062/096 060/090
    20/G    00/G    00/G    00/G    00/G    03/T    33/T
MLS 063/092 065/095 066/093 063/100 066/103 067/099 065/090
    30/G    00/G    00/G    00/G    00/G    00/G    00/G
4BQ 062/091 063/095 064/091 065/099 066/100 065/097 066/088
    30/G    00/G    00/G    00/G    00/G    03/T    33/T
BHK 058/087 061/091 063/088 062/096 066/097 066/094 064/088
    20/B    00/G    00/U    00/G    00/G    00/G    00/B
SHR 058/091 060/094 060/092 062/096 063/099 063/096 061/088
    32/T    00/G    00/G    00/G    00/G    03/T    33/T

.BYZ...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

MTZ028>042-056>058-WYZ098-099-271130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
524 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL...SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.