Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Billings, MT

July 19, 2003Custer County, Montana

NWS Billings, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 19, 2003, 4:48 PM MDT for Custer County, Montana. It was in force for 42 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 19, 2003, 4:48 PM MDT (22:48 UTC)
Expired: Jul 19, 2003, 5:30 PM MDT
In force: 42 min
Issued by: NWS Billings, MT
Area: Whole counties

County Custer County, MT

The radar

The Glasgow radar (KGGW), 231 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Glasgow Intl Airport, MT (KGGW), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 232 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 9 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -447 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2928 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 30 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 83 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

358 
WUUS55 KBYZ 192248
SVRBYZ
MTC017-192330-

BULLETIN - EAS BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
447 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BILLINGS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL CUSTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA

* UNTIL 530 PM MDT

* AT 447 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED  
TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ONE 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF LOCATE...AND 
ANOTHER ABOUT 15 MILES EAST OF MILES CITY. BOTH STORMS WERE MOVING 
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF...  
CENTRAL CUSTER AND EASTERN CUSTER COUNTIES AND MOVE THROUGH MIZPAH 
AROUND 515 PM MDT.

VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...PUT YOUR CAR IN A GARAGE AND MOVE TO A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

$$

LAT...LON 4661 10524 4640 10566 4596 10515 4617 10492
          4645 10493

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Billings, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 19, 3:20 PM MDT, 1 hour 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 3:20 PM MDT, 1 hour 28 minutes before

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
320 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2003

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
PATTERN WILL CHANCE SLIGHTLY...BUT WILL STILL LEAVE THE AREA HOT. THE
PERSISTENT UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL SLIDE SOUTH SOUTH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET UP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN FORCING AND MOISTURE HAS
PUSHED SOUTH HOWEVER. SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOP NORTH OF BILLINGS DUE
TO TERRAIN. WILL KEEP POPS LOW THIS EVENING...BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
SOUTH. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE WEAK...SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT
WILL STILL BE HOT...JUST NOT A HOT AS TODAY. WILL KEEP LOWER TO MID 90S
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL REPOSITION ITSELF OVER UTAH
SUNDAY NIGHT. ENERGY WILL GET PUSHED EAST MONDAY. HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN
HIGH...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY COOL DOWN SOME UNDER A
DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS WILL STAY HOT OVER THE WEST...WITH THE
UPPER 80S OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HUMPHREY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET BEGIN EXTENDED PERIOD WITH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES...STRENGTH OF HIGH VARIES WITH EACH MODEL BUT
VERY SIMILAR. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF MT EARLY TUE
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 594DM OVER SC/SE MT AND NC WY WILL KEEP HOT
WEATHER IN PLACE. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING OVER CANADA WED BEGIN
TO TREK EASTWARD AND SLIDE SOUTH SLIGHTLY ALLOWING 500MB HEIGHT FIELDS
TO FALL AND SHUNT HIGH PRESSURE AREA FURTHER SOUTHWARD...RESULTING IN A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPS FOR WED...YET STILL HOT WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
AROUND 588DM. OVERALL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES WASHED OUT BY 12Z THU WITH
MODELS BEGINNING TO DISAGREE...GFS GOES ZONAL WITH 500MB HEIGHTS FALLING
TO 588-582DM WHILE ECMWF/UKMET SHOW A SLIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
AND 500MB HEIGHTS HOLDING AROUND 588DM. EITHER WAY WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT ECMWF MODEL BECOMES
MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND WILL TREND FCST MORE ALONG THESE
LINES WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONTANA MAY
BRING IN WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT WOULD TRIGGER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES THAT FAR OUT. SPRINGER

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065/095 062/089 063/093 057/092 059/092 062/086 055/090
    20/G    00/U    00/G    00/G    00/G    00/B    03/T
LVM 055/096 054/097 055/096 052/093 054/090 057/086 049/087
    20/G    00/G    00/G    00/G    00/G    00/B    03/T
HDN 063/095 062/090 063/094 057/094 059/094 062/087 056/091
    20/G    00/G    00/G    00/G    00/G    00/B    03/T
MLS 065/093 062/088 063/092 057/095 059/096 062/090 057/092
    20/G    00/U    00/G    00/G    00/G    03/T    33/T
4BQ 064/092 061/088 062/090 059/093 061/093 062/090 057/090
    30/G    00/U    00/G    00/G    03/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 063/090 060/087 061/090 055/091 057/091 060/088 058/089
    20/G    00/U    00/G    00/G    00/G    03/T    33/T
SHR 060/093 057/090 058/089 055/091 056/091 059/086 055/088
    30/G    00/G    00/U    00/G    03/T    30/B    03/T

.BYZ...
MT...NONE.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THIS EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 284.

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 19, 4:00 PM MDT, 48 minutes before

MTZ028>042-056>058-WYZ098-099-201100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
400 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL...SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
WYOMING THIS EVENING. HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGERS...VERY LOW
HUMIDITIES AND ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS...HAS PROMPTED THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH. PLEASE REFER TO GTFRFWBYZ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACC

The office that day

Everything else NWS Billings, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 18, 6:12 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BYZ	Fallon	33 min
Jul 19, 1:32 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BYZ	Carter	58 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.