Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Billings, MT

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
148 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2003

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR TONIGHT A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH MODERATELY STRONG CAPES...50 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY TO GIVE THE AREA A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST SHOT WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE
CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND BETTER SHEAR PROFILES EXIST WITH LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL A LOT BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN
CLOUD COVER AND GENERAL LACK OF COLD AIR WITH IT. FOR TUESDAY...FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH...WASHING OUT BY AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
TREND POPS BACK IN THE EAST DURING THE DAY AND GO DRY ELSEWHERE AS
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN ALONG WITH RIDGE ALOFT FROM THE WEST. RIDGE ALOFT
PROVIDING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES IN FOR
WEDNESDAY. A WAVE ROTATES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY BUT WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WITH A FEW 90S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

CURRENT EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. MOST ACTIVE DAY AT
THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS STRONGLY BACK
INTO AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONLY TO BE KNOCKED DOWN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY COULD POSSIBLY BE VERY HOT DAY. GFS PROGGING 700 MB
TEMPERATURES OF +14C TO +16C AT 18Z. FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH 00Z TEMPERATURES COOLING ABOUT 4 DEGREES. EVEN WITH COOL DOWN 00Z
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT POSSIBLE UPPER 90S IN SOUTHEAST ZONES. EXPECT GOOD
MIXING WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS 700 MB WINDS SHOULD MIX DOWN THE HOT
AIR PRETTY GOOD...ALONG WITH COMPRESSIONAL HEATING. HAVE RAISED HIGH
TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEDNESDAYS HIGHS WEST AND RAISED INTO LOWER 90S IN
EAST. EASTERN ZONES MAY NEED TO GO EVEN WARMER...ESPECIALLY IF FRONT
SLOWS...WHICH IT OFTEN DOES IN THIS PATTERN. ALSO EXPECT SOME FAIRLY
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BEYOND THIS...NORTHWEST FLOW HANGS ON INTO FRIDAY...BUT THEN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO AREA FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. WILL ONLY BE TWEAKING CURRENT TEMPERATURES UP A BIT EACH
DAY. RASCH

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/080 054/087 063/088 050/074 051/077 052/079 054/082
    32/T    00/B    03/T    00/B    00/E    00/B    00/B
LVM 049/080 046/086 049/080 044/076 045/077 044/080 048/078
    30/B    00/B    03/T    00/B    00/E    00/B    00/B
HDN 055/081 054/087 062/090 049/076 050/077 055/079 055/083
    42/T    00/B    03/T    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
MLS 056/082 054/085 061/092 050/073 051/076 052/078 057/081
    42/T    00/U    03/T    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
4BQ 056/082 051/085 058/092 049/071 050/076 053/076 054/079
    43/T    00/B    03/T    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
BHK 055/081 051/084 055/090 048/072 049/074 052/076 055/078
    43/T    00/U    03/T    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
SHR 054/080 048/084 058/087 047/072 048/076 053/078 052/080
    43/T    00/B    03/T    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B

.BYZ...
MT...FLOOD WARNING FOR THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER NEAR LIVINGSTON.
WY...NONE.

MTZ028>042-056>058-WYZ098-099-271100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
502 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL...SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...
RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
RIVERS NEAR AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES WILL RISE TO HEIGHTS NEAR BANK
FULL. SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS. PLEASE
REFER TO GTFFLWBYZ AND GTFRVSBYZ FOR DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY TODAY. ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD IMPACT SWOLLEN STREAMS.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THOUGH FOR MOST RIVERS THE CREST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MONDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO GTFFLWBYZ AND GTFRVSBYZ FOR UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS NEAR AND ALONG AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS SHOULD WATCH FOR
RISING WATER...AND REPORT ANY FLOODING. ANY HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE
REPORTED.

WCJIN-WYNW-WYNE