Alert archive / Montana / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003

Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Billings, MT

March 15, 2003Custer County, Rosebud County, Montana

NWS Billings, MT issued this flash flood warning at Mar 15, 2003, 11:30 PM MST for Custer County, Rosebud County, Montana. It was in force for 9 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Mar 15, 2003, 11:30 PM MST (06:30 UTC)
Expired: Mar 16, 2003, 8:00 AM MST
In force: 9 hr
Issued by: NWS Billings, MT
Area: Whole counties

Counties Custer County, MT, Rosebud County, MT

The radar

The Billings radar (KBLX), 194 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Glasgow Intl Airport, MT (KGGW), launched 00:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 223 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2361 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 130 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 104 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS55 KBYZ 160628
FFWBYZ
MTC017-087-161500-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1130 PM MST SAT MAR 15 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BILLINGS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  EXTREME WEST CENTRAL CUSTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA
  EXTREME EAST CENTRAL ROSEBUD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA

* UNTIL 800 AM MST

* AT 930 PM MST...AN ICE JAM ON THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER JUST WEST OF
  HATHAWAY BROKE AND CAUSED A SURGE OF WATER TO FLOW RAPIDLY         
  DOWNSTREAM.  THIS SURGE OF WATER RESULTED IN FLOODING ALONG THE    
  YELLOWSTONE RIVER IN HATHAWAY.  AS THIS WATER SURGE MOVES          
  DOWNSTREAM...FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE UP TO 10 TO 15 MILES        
  DOWNSTREAM OF HATHAWAY.  

PERSONS LIVING ALONG THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER FROM HATHAWAY TO 15 MILES 
EAST OF HATHAWAY SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. 

$$

LAT...LON 4629 10623 4624 10619 4629 10607 4633 10613

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Billings, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Mar 15, 9:00 PM MST, 2 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 15, 9:00 PM MST, 2 hours 30 minutes before

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
900 PM MST SAT MAR 15 2003

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
WILL UPDATE THE ZONES AND THE AFP. BROAD TROUGH FORMING OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS HAS PUT THE FORECAST AREA IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. FLOW PRETTY MOIST AS EVIDENT BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. 00Z ETA
SENDS A WEAKENING WAVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS WORKING INTO NORTHEAST IDAHO AT THE MOMENT. ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
STABLE OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA...SO SHOWERS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME AS THEY
RIDE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. ETA KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF
LIVINGSTON TONIGHT AND ABSORBS MOST OF IT IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS IN LIVINGSTON BASED ON RADAR. LARGE SWATH OF
CLOUDS WORKING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...WITH ANOTHER BATCH MOVING TOWARD
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. WILL RAISE SOME LOWS...AS CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP. WILL ALSO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS. HUMPHREY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
500MB INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY
AND BE CLOSED OFF BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A CLOSED
SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS. BOTH THE SURFACE AND
500MB LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY WITHIN THE SAME VICINITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS
IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. THE COMBINATION OF THIS HIGH AND THE LARGE
STORM SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING A NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES. MODELS PLACE AN ABUNDANCE OF QPF ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM THE
INVERTED TROUGH NOSES UP INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR STATE. AS A
RESULT...BOTH ETA AND AVN PLACE SOME SLIGHT CAPE ACROSS THAT AREA.
BELIEVE THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THESE HIGHER PRECIPITATION
BULLS EYES MAY BE SOME FORM OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODELS. IN ANY
CASE...WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN THE WEST
AND THE COLDEST READINGS OUT EAST WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. STORM SYSTEM WILL STILL BE CLOSED OFF WITH VERY
LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN ITS POSITION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST. TROUGH FINALLY
OPENS UP AND QUICKLY EXITS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RIDGING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. HOOLEY

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038/057 034/047 029/043 028/043 026/049 026/049 026/050
    03/W    66/W    44/O    43/J    30/E    00/E    00/B
LVM 035/053 030/045 026/041 025/044 023/046 023/046 023/047
    26/W    64/W    44/O    23/J    30/E    00/E    00/B
HDN 036/056 032/047 027/041 026/043 024/048 024/048 024/051
    03/W    66/W    66/O    63/J    30/E    00/E    00/B
MLS 036/055 034/045 027/040 026/039 024/039 024/039 024/045
    03/W    46/W    66/J    63/J    30/E    00/E    00/B
4BQ 037/057 035/041 028/037 026/032 024/045 024/045 024/041
    03/W    67/W    76/J    63/J    33/J    30/E    00/B
BHK 034/054 032/043 026/034 024/033 022/036 020/036 022/041
    02/W    46/W    66/J    63/J    33/J    30/E    00/B
SHR 033/053 029/043 027/041 025/040 023/047 023/047 025/049
    03/W    66/W    66/J    63/J    30/E    00/E    00/B

.BYZ...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 15, 5:02 AM MST, 18 hours 28 minutes before

MTZ028>042-056>058-WYZ098-099-161200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
502 AM MST SAT MAR 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL...SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...
AN ICE JAM IN THE TONGUE RIVER SOUTH OF MILES CITY HAS RESULTED IN
FLOODING.  REFER TO GTFFLWBYZ FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WCJIN-WYNW-WYNE

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Montana, 2003 Every flash flood warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.