Special Marine Warning 92, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
334 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

BAND OF PRECIP WITH EMBEDDED HVY RAIN IN TSTMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK ARND THE BGM AREA NORTHWEST INTO THE FINGER LKS
REGION AND THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EXPECT HEAVIEST PRECIP TNGT TO BE
MNLY OVR THE FINGER LKS REGION INTO OSWEGO COUNTY WHERE 1-2 INCHES IS
PSBL OVRNGT...LOCALIZED HIGHER AMNTS PSBL IN TSTMS. EXPECT LESSER
AMNTS FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCH FOR TNGT FOR THE
FINGER LKS REGION FROM MONROE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES...EAST TO
OSWEGO COUNTY. WATCH COULD PSBLY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER WEST.
MAIN THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING FROM TSTMS WITH HVY RAIN.

PERSISTENT UPPER LOW KEEPS UNSETTLED WX WITH VARYING CHCS OF
SHWRS/TSTMS INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHEST POPS TNGT/WED. THE GFS SHOWS
SOME DRYING WED NGT FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FCST WED
NGT WEST OF THE GEN VALLEY WITH A CHC OF AN EVE TSTM OVR THE FINGER
LKS WITH LKLY POPS UP ARND THE WATERTOWN AREA.

THU...BEST CHC SHWR/TSTM IN THE AFTN FROM THE FINGER LKS WEST BUT
WILL NOT PUT ANY TIMING FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON FRIDAY...AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WESTERN NY FRIDAY MRNG SO
WILL GO WITH CHC POPS IN THE WEST BUT HOLD OFF CHC PRECIP EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO TILL FRIDAY AFTN. PRECIP THREAT CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY
EVENING.

IN THE EXTENDED...HARD TO GO AGAINST PERSISTENCE. GFS SHOWS RIDGE OVR
THE CENTRAL LAKES TRYING TO BUILD INTO WESTERN NY BUT WITH STATIONARY
FRONT RUNNING ALNG THE APPALACHINS INTO EASTERN NEW YORK IT IS HARD
NOT TO MENTION AT LEAST A LOW CHC SHWR/TSTM SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH BEST
CHC IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.BUF...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR NYZ003>006-013-014.

JJP