Special Marine Warning 67, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1000 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2003

UPDATE ISSUED TO DROP BACK TO CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST WHERE THE
SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE ISOLATED...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE EXCEPT
TO REMOVE REFERENCES TO MORNING.

THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS MODELS ARE BEING A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST. DEEP MOISTURE
AND GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL
KEEP PLENTY OF CONVECTION AROUND TODAY...ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF
ROCHESTER. AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST...PRECIPITATION WILL
WIND DOWN ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS AIR ALOFT STILL RATHER COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. I
AM NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
INSTABILITY FOR THE MOST PART IS LACKING WITH AVERAGE CAPE VALUES
BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVELS REMAINING MOIST ENOUGH TO
KEEP MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST. LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

NICE DAY SHAPING UP FOR FRIDAY WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING AT ALL
LEVELS. STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME AFTERNOON
CUMULUS. MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND +14C SHOULD GET
AFTERNOON READING CLOSE TO 80 OR A LITTLE BETTER.

GFS AND ETA A LITTLE SLOWER WITH MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD OF NEXT FRONT.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY NOW WITH A SLIGHT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
SNEAKING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT LIKELY HOLDING
OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND +17C
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOST AREAS TO GET WELL INTO THE 80S.

.BUF...NONE.

APB

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-241100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
508 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO
CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/BUF/.