Special Marine Warning 45, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
913 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2003

MUCH THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING SEEMS TO BE AVOIDING THE BUF CWA.
SVR STORMS HAVE FIRED IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND IN OHIO BUT THE HAVE
WEAKENED AND MOVED ALONG THE EDGES OF THE CWA. SCT TSRA MOVED ACROSS
LEWIS COUNTY EARLIER BUT NOTHING SEVERE NOTED.

EXPECT SHOWERS OVR SRN ONTARIO TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWRD TOWARDS ERN
LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES LATER. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THERE AND GO CHC
OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE.

MOST OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL. STILL SOME
COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY
WILL RESULT IN SOME DIURNAL CLOUDINESS...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK LIMITED.

SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR...
THEREFORE MAINLY SUNNY FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE. NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE ON FRIDAY. GFS/MRF STILL SUGGESTING A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY.

.BUF...NONE.

TMA

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-290815-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
418 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH SEVERE
LIMITS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SAGE