Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1014 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

FORECAST IS HOLDING UP WELL THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST
THE NIAGARA PENNINSULA AND ONSHORE FROM LAKE ERIE RESULTED IN A FEW
WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT RANGE.  THE ACTIVITY WEAKENED AS IT MOVED
FURTHER EAST.

SOME DEBRIS CLOUDINESS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME BUT CLOUDS
THINNING UPSTREAM.  THIS MAY TRIGGER MORE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH WIND FIELD ALOFT NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

WILL BE EMPHASIZING A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS.  THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT
TO TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL ALSO BUMP UP WINDS A BIT BASED
ON LATEST MESO ETA BUFKIT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
INTACT.

EXPECT UPDATE WORKZONES AROUND 10:30 AM.  SHOULD BE ON STREET BY 11
AM.

SL

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-011100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
414 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT COMING TO AN END.
HOWEVER...MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...MID AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY...AND FINGER LAKES REGION.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.

TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SFM