Special Marine Warning 101, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
534 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2003

PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN TIER.

UPPER AIR SHORT TROUGH IS TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. AS THE SHORT WAVES MOVES EAST A DRY
SLOT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AS ALSO
INDICATED BY SUNY MM5 AND ETA 12. BY EVENING A NEW AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH WESTERN COUNTIES AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS
ENTIRE WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON CAPES RISE TO 1800 WITH LIFTED INDEX OF -4.
THIS INDEX AND CAPE CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH MM5 INDICATED ALSO
HEAVY RAINS. AN SPS ON SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO ACCUMULATIVE PRECIPITATION INDICATED ON THE
MODELS...A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND 12Z SO I PUT IN SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN RIDGING MOVING IN WITH DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

RIDGE WILL PLAY ITS PART ACROSS REGION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER GREAT LAKES SYSTEM PRODUCES SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

PRESENT INDICATION THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS REGION FOR
NEXT WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT COULD TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER FOR LATE SATURDAY.

.BUF...NONE.

SPS ON SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK TODAY AND TONIGHT.

EGR

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-261100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
435 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  DOWNPOURS MAY ALSO
OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-262045-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
439 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2003

THE SEVERE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS OVER WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS
ONE WITH HAIL SIZE OF THREE QUARTER INCH OR LARGER AND DAMAGING
WINDS OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING PONDING OF WATER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

LISTEN FOR ANY POSSIBLE STATEMENTS, NOWCASTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS
FROM NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/BUF/

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-262045-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
445 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2003

THE SEVERE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS OVER WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS
ONE WITH HAIL SIZE OF THREE QUARTER INCH OR LARGER AND DAMAGING
WINDS OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING PONDING OF WATER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

LISTEN FOR ANY POSSIBLE STATEMENTS, NOWCASTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS
FROM NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/BUF/