Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
250 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2003

.DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTS A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF
PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER KENEDY...WILLACY...AND CAMERON
COUNTIES. ANOTHER LESS COHESIVE BUT BROADER BAND OF SHOWERS WAS
POSITIONED OFFSHORE ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE COASTAL
WATERS...ABOUT 75 MILES OFFSHORE.  THESE SHOWER BANDS WERE
PSUEDO-STATIONARY AND MIGHT PROVE TO BE FLOOD CAPABLE BY MID
AFTERNOON IF THE SHOWERS DO NOT SUBSIDE OR MOVE INLAND.

COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUN...THE NEW 12Z AVN MOS OUTPUT HAS BACKED OFF
ON POPS BY ROUGHLY 20 PERCENT IN THE 24 TO 36 HOUR TIMEFRAME...
SPORTING 35 PERCENT FOR 12 HOUR POPS ACROSS THE BOARD THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY.  THE MAIN REASON FOR THE CHANGE APPEARS TO BE THE
INTRODUCTION OF DRYING IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.  THE ETA/NGM SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN
SOME CONSISTENCY IN THAT RESPECT.  GFS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ARRIVING IN THE REGION ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT ON FRIDAY.  THE LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ERODE FROM TOP
TO BOTTOM STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1 AM BUOY020 REPORTED SE WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH
SEAS 3 FOOT 7 SECONDS. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET WILL
ADVECT MOISTURE FROM T.S. OLAF ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TOWARD MID
WEEK...ADDING TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH A
PREDOMINANT SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...LOWER TEXAS MARINE AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS MOSTLY OUT OF THE EAST INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BECOME EASTERLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH VISIBILITY
DROPPING TO IFR LEVEL TOWARD SUNRISE IN ISOLATED SPOTS. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INLAND AND DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING...THEN RETURN BY MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. SKY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR TONIGHT...WITH CEILINGS IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY TUE MORNING...THEN VFR BY AFTERNOON WITH A MODERATE SE
WIND. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWER VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE        BB 075/086 075/087 075 20/40/20/30/10
HARLINGEN          BB 074/088 074/088 074 20/40/20/30/10
MCALLEN            BB 073/091 072/091 073 20/40/20/30/10
RIO GRANDE CITY    BB 072/092 071/092 072 20/30/10/30/10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND BB 078/084 078/084 078 20/40/20/30/10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SYNOPTIC-GRIDS...69
MARINE-AVIATION...59
MESO...ABBOTT

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

TXZ248>257-071100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
700 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE..TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY DURING THE DAY TODAY.
RAINS FROM THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINS. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS. HIGHWAY 77 FROM HARLINGEN NORTH AND HIGHWAY 83 FROM
MCALLEN NORTH ARE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO PATCHES OF DENSE FOG
WHICH COULD MAKE DRIVING HAZARDOUS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.