Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Brownsville, TX

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
250 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2003

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AND ARE SPREADING TOWARD THE REMAINING
COUNTIES...MOVING JUST QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CIRCUMVENT FLOOD PROBLEMS
ATTM.  A SHARP LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
TO OUR NORTH SHOULD REACH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AS IT TRAVELS THROUGH
TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.  RAINFALL SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY HEAVY IN
THE REGION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.  GFS INDICATES
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL CWA THIS EVENING...LIFTED
INDICES BELOW -6.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING.

HOWEVER...AVN/ETA SAY THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LAST THROUGH MONDAY AS ENERGY DRIVING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING A TROUGH AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE/INSTAB
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY.  MODERATE
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THEN REMAIN IN PLACE
UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT AND PUNCH OF COLDER
AIR DOWN THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

.MARINE...AT 1 PM BUOY 020 REPORTED MODERATE EAST WINDS 6-8 KTS WITH
SEAS OF 2 FEET AND 5 SECONDS. BRO RADAR DETECTED WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA
OVER THE LWR TX COASTAL WATERS WITHIN LEADING EDGE OF WARM HUMID AIR
BEING ADVECTED NORTH BY DEEP LAYER SE FLOW. CONCURRENTLY...A COLD
FRONT IS MOVG SOUTH NEAR 18 KTS ACROSS S CNTRL TX. THE FRONT HAD
PASSED THRU THE SAT AREA AROUND NOON...AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
DEEP S TX BY EARLY EVENING...THEREFORE...GOOD CHC OF SHRA/TSRA OVR
MARINE AREAS TONIGHT AND TMRW. LGT/MDT E/NE FLOW LIKELY THRU
TUE...WITH ELONGATED SFC RIDGE STRETCHING FROM NRN COAHUILA TO THE
APPALACHIANS. WINDS VEER TO SE FOR WED/THU WITH APRCH OF NEXT H5
S/WV TROUGH. NEXT COLD FRONT...STRONGER THAN CURRENT ONE...ENTERS TX
PANHANDLE EARLY THU AND THRU THE LWR TX COASTAL WATERS FRI AM. SCA
MAY BE NECESSARY FRI AND FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA.

.AVIATION...2 PM SFC REPORTS IN THE AREA INDICATED VFR
CONDITIONS.... BUT EXPECT BRIEF IFR CONDS DUE TO LOW VSBY/CIG IN
+TSRA DURG AFTN AND TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON MON. MDT SE
WINDS...EXCEPT FOR GUSTS UP TO 30KTS IN HEAVIER TSRA.

.BRO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 15/0630Z FOR TXZ248>257.

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...69
MARINE/AVIATION...59
MESO...VEGA

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

TXZ248>257-151100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
6 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO NUMEROUS BY
TONIGHT. HAZARDS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE LIGHTNING...
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED...BUT A SMALL POSSIBILITY ALWAYS EXISTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST INTO
MONDAY...DIMINISHING BY MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.