Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Brownsville, TX

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
300 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEABREEZE
INDUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
BECOME DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING
ZFP.

.MARINE...AT 2 PM BUOY 020 REPORTED EAST WINDS AT 4 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 6 KNOTS AND SEAS AT 1 FOOT 5 SECONDS. SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST WILL PRODUCE VARIABLE WINDS NEARSHORE AND A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH TEMPORARY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
ARE OCCURRING OVER THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON.  AIR MASS
AND SEA BREEZE FRONT THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. SHORT TERM MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING ANY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TX THE NEXT FEW DAYS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REGIONAL AIRPORTS.  SEABREEZE INDUCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE         EB 075/093 077/094 077 10/30/10/20/10
HARLINGEN           EB 075/095 077/095 076 10/30/10/20/10
MCALLEN             BB 077/097 077/097 077 20/30/10/20/10
RIO GRANDE CITY     BB 076/099 076/100 076 10/10/10/10/00
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND  BB 079/091 080/091 079 20/20/10/10/10

.BRO...NONE.

SYNOPTIC-GRIDS...63/MARINE-AVIATION...58
MESO...MARTINEZ/CAMPBELL

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

TXZ248>257-241115-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
115 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PERSISTS OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS DUE
TO AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND ASSOCIATED
SEABREEZE FRONTS WITH PERSISTENT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PHILO

TXZ250-251-253>257-231700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1100 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003

...EARLY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TODAY...
...MORE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS BEING LIFTED LATE THIS MORNING BY
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE
BEGINNINGS OF A SEA BREEZE. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. HEAVY RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS WITH 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. BE ALERT TO POOR VISIBILITIES AND
ROADWAY PONDING IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. PHILO/CAMPBELL

PHILO/CAMPBELL

TXZ250-251-253>257-231930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...REISSUE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
130 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003

...MORE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS BEING LIFTED LATE TODAY BY
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE
BEGINNINGS OF A SEA BREEZE. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. HEAVY RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS WITH 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. BE ALERT TO POOR VISIBILITIES AND
ROADWAY PONDING IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. PHILO/CAMPBELL

PHILO