Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Brownsville, TX

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
950 AM CST SAT MAR 15 2003

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...CURRENT VSBYS AT THE 3 VALLEY AIRPORTS ARE
>6SM ATTM WITH CIGS HOLDING STEADY BELOW 1 KFT.  CURRENT KBRO
REFLECTIVITY SHOWS SCATTERED CONV FIRING TO THE SOUTH OF THE BORDER
OVER NE MEXICO MOVING NE AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS
A DECENT LI AROUND -6 IN PLACE OVER THE CWA WITH A RESPECTIBLE PWAT
AROUND 1.50 INCHES. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS SEVERAL 5H
VORTICES ADVECTING OVER THE AREA AS A STRONG 5H TROUGH MOVES EAST
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO.  THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF UVV ACROSS THE ENTIRE BRO CWA TODAY MAINTAINING THE CONV
THREAT.  WILL ADJUST THE CURRENT WORDING OF THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE
ZFP TO REFLECT BETTER INITIAL CONV CHCS NEAR THE BORDER...BUT
OVERALL FORECAST TREND LOOKS GOOD.

LOW OVC AND RAIN COOLED OUTFLOWS FROM THE CONV TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS SUPPRESSED THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMP WORDING
IN THE FIRST PERIOD LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED HERE.

MARINE...THE E-NE SURFACE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
SE FLOW PATTERN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TROFFING
INCREASES OVER NORTHERN MEX AND WEST TX. CONV NOW REMAINS CLUSTERED
AROUND BUOY020 MOVING NE AT 10 TO 15 MPH. WILL LIKELY REISSUE THE
MWSBRO HIGHLIGHTING THE CONV POTENTIAL ALONG THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY. CURRENT CWF WORDING LOOKS OK WITH NO CHANGES
REQUIRED ATTM.

SYNOPTIC-AVIATION-MARINE...60/MESO...MARTINEZ

.BRO...NONE.

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

GMZ130-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-161200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
600 AM CST SAT MAR 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AREAS OF FOG WILL SHROUD THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SEA FOG OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO ONE TO THREE NAUTICAL
MILES TODAY. FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS LATER TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AVERAGE AROUND 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MORE
THAN 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.  ALSO...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS
AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

BENNETT