Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Brownsville, TX

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
200 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2003

BOTH THE ETA AND THE GFS MODELS INDCT A S/WV TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NORTH OF TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND BEING
RIGHT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.  BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RAPIDLY DISSIPATING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
DRYING AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT EXPECT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE.  THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWED A PRECIP WATER OF NEARLY 2
INCHES AND A K-INDEX OF 34 WITH VERY LITTLE CAP.  EXPECT VERY LITTLE
WEATHER FROM THE EAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WESTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL.  THE COMBINATION OF S/WV TROUGH FROM THE WEST
APPROACHING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE UPPER
LEVELS COULD INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  AS THE S/WV TROUGH MOVES EAST
ON SUNDAY A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL DECREASE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS AMPLE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BECOMES MORE
AVAILABLE.

.MARINE...BUOY OBS 35 MILES EAST OF PORT MANSFIELD SHOW THAT A
SURFACE TROF HAS MOVED THRU THIS PORTION OF THE LOWER TX GULF
WATERS...WITH WINDS NOW 34015KTS AND SEAS AT 3 FEET. A SURFACE COL
WILL DOMINATE PRESSURE FIELDS OVER THE ADJ GULF SAT/SUN...WITH WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW. NO SCA IN THE FCST...WITH SHRAS ENDING TNGT AND NO
ADDITIONAL SHRA DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...EXCEPT FOR
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO SUM BRIEF LOW
CIGS. OTHERWISE AVIATORS SHOULD PLAN FOR ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.  IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS AVIATORS CAN EXPECT TEMPORARILY LOWER CEILINGS TO NEAR
1500 FT AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS.

.EXTENDED...A 500 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK SETTING UP ANOTHER DRY AND
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN.  THE GFS SHOWS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WHILE
THE ETA SHOWS MORE OF A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS STARTING SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.  WILL TAKE SHOWERS OUT COMPLETELY BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK CAUSING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST ONCE AGAIN.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...
BRO EE 079/088 077/090 076 20/40/10/20/00/00
HRL EE 077/091 076/092 075 20/40/10/20/00/00
MFE EE 078/093 075/094 074 20/40/10/20/00/00
RGC EE 077/095 074/096 073 20/40/10/10/00/00
SPI EE 081/086 080/087 080 20/40/10/20/00/00

SYNOPTIC...65
AVIATION-MARINE-MESO...58

.BRO...NONE.

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

TXZ248>257-071000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
145 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY...AS A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE REGION. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AFTER MONDAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS...BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PHILO