Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Brownsville, TX

000 
WGUS74 KBRO 121952
FFSBRO
TXC061-122015-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
250 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2003

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN CAMERON COUNTY HAS BEEN 
CANCELED...

AT 250 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE 
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAD COVERED MUCH OF EASTERN 
CAMERON COUNTY WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAD WEAKENED. ONLY SOME 
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS GENERATING RAINFALL RATES LESS THAN ONE 
INCH PER HOUR WERE OBSERVED NEAR SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. 

REMEMBER...RUNOFF FROM THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY 
FALLEN WILL CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS 
AND NEAR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES THAT UP TO 5 
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF BROWNSVILLE.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS 
BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. 
NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO 
ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

$$

MCELROY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
945 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2003

.SHORT TERM...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
MEXICO AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.  A LARGE MCS IS
POSITIONED OVER PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.  THIS AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE THE
INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH
NORTH EAST NEAR 20 MPH.  BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR HAS DEPICTED
AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME AREAS THIS MORNING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN AFFECT THROUGH 5 PM TODAY...IT MAY BE
NECESSARY TO EXTEND THE WATCH LATER TODAY.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.  ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE
AVN HAS HANDLED THIS SITUATION WELL.  PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATES ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
&&

.LONG TERM...PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEK AS A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.  A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&

.MARINE...BUOY CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS AND SWELLS PUSHING UP NEAR
SCA LEVELS OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL
MAINTAIN THE SCA HEADLINE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY. CURRENT CWF
WORDING LOOKS OK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT CONV TRENDS FROM KBRO RADAR WILL MAINTAIN THE
CONV THREAT FOR ALL OF THE AIRPORTS IN THE LOWER RGV.  AS THE CONV
AREA SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...THE CIGS AND VSBYS AT THE HRL AND BRO
AIRPORTS WILL LOWER DRAMATICALLY. CURRENT TAF WORDING LOOKS OK WITH
NO MAJOR CHANGES REQUIRED ATTM.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU 22Z FOR TXZ248>257
 SCA TODAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.
&&

SYNOPTIC-GRIDS...63
MARINE-AVIATION...60
MESO...58/CAMPBELL

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

TXZ248>257-131100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
605 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE..TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS UNTIL 5 PM SUNDAY. AN EXTENSION OF THE WATCH THROUGH TOMORROW
IS LIKELY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE
BEEN MOVING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OFFSHORE TODAY...DUE TO MODERATE
TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND LIFTS THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER OUR REGION. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FLOODING RAINS A POSSIBILITY ONCE
MORE. WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE NECESSARY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A STRONGER FRONT IS DUE FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING STRONG
NORTH WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

59