Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Brownsville, TX

000 
WGUS74 KBRO 191400
FFSBRO
TXC215-191500-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
900 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2003

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR NORTHERN
HIDALGO COUNTY...

AT 900 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN 
AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER 
RADAR ESTIMATED THAT UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED DURING 
THE LAST 3 HOURS IN THE WARNED AREA. RAINFALL OF UP TO AN INCH PER 
HOUR IS STILL CONTINUING BUT RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF 
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RUNOFF FROM THIS
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG
SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL 
EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...SAN MANUEL.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS 
AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND ARROYOS...AS 
WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 2677 9802 2660 9804 2660 9798 2644 9803
          2649 9846 2677 9832

$$

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
230 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2003

TODAY THRU SUN...BRO EVE SOUNDING CALCULATED PWAT AT 2.62
INCHES...UP ABT A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM AM SOUNDING. LIFTED INDEX
WAS -6.1...INDICATING A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOS. VWP SHOWS E/SE FLOW...
FROM SFC TO ABT 9K FT...INDICATING CONTINUED PRESENCE OF COASTAL
TROUGH ADVECTING TROPICAL AIR ACRS DPSOTEX. COLD FRONT BTWN DRT AND
JCT AT 1 AM...LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO S CNTRL TX FAR ENOUGH TO HELP
POOL MOISTURE OVER DPSOTEX. MODELS DEPICT VORT MAX OVER THE AREA
THRU SUN...WHICH WILL SERVE AS TRIGGER FOR NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA UNTIL
THEN. 00Z ETA AND AVN MOS BOTH HAVE CAT POPS FOR BRO THRU SAT WITH
HIGH END POPS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. DRYING BEGINS SUN NIGHT...AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH KICKS NE OUT OF DPSOTEX.

MON THRU THU...H7 LEVEL AND ABV WILL BE BLO 50 PERCENT RH...AS UPPER
LEVEL WINDS OVR W HALF CONUS BECOME ZONAL...CREATING SUBSIDENCE OVR
DPSOTEX...AS LONG WAVE TROUGH LIFTS FROM MID MS VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND BY TUE. WILL DROP POPS FAR WEST ON MON...AS INVERTED SFC
TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO AFFECT ONLY E CWA.
LOOKS LIKE NICE WEEK UPCOMING WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...AND MAX
TEMPS RISING TO CLIMO BY END OF PERIOD AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS ON WED
IN RESPONSE TO LONG WAVE TROUGH ACRS US/CAN BORDER.

.MARINE...THE SURFACE TROFFING OFFSHORE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TX TO MAINTAIN A STRONG
PGF ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE DURING THE UPCOMING FORECAST
PERIOD.  BUOY020 HAS RESPONDED WITH AN EASTERLY SURFACE WIND FROM 20
TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH SWELLS REACHING 6 TO 7
FT.  ACCORDINGLY...WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
WILL MAINTAIN SCEC WORDING FOR THE BAY WATERS AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCES
KEEPS SURFACE WINDS A LITTLE WEAKER OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE.  OBS FROM
PIL FROM YESTERDAY INDICATED ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 TO 25
KTS.  MESO-ETA MSL FIELDS INDICATES THAT THIS MODERATE TO STRONG PGF
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL TX GRADUALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE SHIFTING THE SURFACE FLOW
AROUND TO THE NE.  OVERALL CWF WORDING LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL
LIKELY MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WORDING.

.AVIATION...CIGS AND VSBYS AROUND THE REGION WILL HINGE ON THE
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE ANTICIPATED HVY RAIN EVENT AROUND
THE REGION TODAY. WILL HANDLE THE ANTICIPATED CONV WILL PERIODIC
TEMPO GROUPS. OTHERWISE...THE INVERTED SURFACE TROFFING POSITIONED
OVER THE LOWER TX COASTLINE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. CURRENT TAF
WORDING LOOKS OK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES REQUIRED ATTM.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE        TT 086/074 086/072 087 90/80/80/40/60
HARLINGEN          TT 085/074 085/071 087 90/80/80/40/60
MCALLEN            TT 085/073 085/071 086 90/80/80/50/50
RIO GRANDE CITY    TT 085/072 085/069 085 90/80/80/60/50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND TT 083/076 084/074 086 90/80/80/40/60

.BRO...FFA FOR ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL 5 PM FRI
       SCA TODAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-175..

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...59
MARINE/AVIATION/MESO...60

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

TXZ248>257-201100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
615 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM THIS EVENING...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS...DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER
THE AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTLINE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL ALSO HELP TRIGGER THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.
THE GREATEST WEATHER HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE CHANCES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY FROM SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENHANCED BY A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL APPROACH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SPEECE