Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
247 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2003

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  CURRENT RADAR PICTURES ARE SHOWING SCATTERED
DECENT CONVECTION GOING RIGHT NOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS INCREASES OVER THE PLAINS AS THE
GRIDS ADVERTISED.  CROSS SECTIONS AND GRIDS SHOW PRETTY DEEP
MOISTURE...DECENT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES...A
THETA-E AXIS...PLENTY OF CAPE...WEAK FLOW ALOFT...AND DECENT
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FOR THIS EVENING.  WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH GOING AS IS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  QPF GRIDS SHOW PRECIPITATION
THROUGH ABOUT 09Z OVERNIGHT.  SATURDAY LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY
ALONG WITH SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...AND BETTER SHEAR OF
THE SOUNDINGS.  FOR TEMPERATURES...GRIDS SHOW READINGS A TAD COOLER
FOR HIGHS THEN TODAY.   RJK

LONG TERM DISCUSSION:  FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...A MDT NWLY FLOW ALF
COUPLED WITH SELY FLOW AT THE SFC WL ALLOW FOR A FVBL ENVIRONMENT
FOR STG/SVR THUNDERSTORMS.  SCT POPS LOOK GOOD FOR MOST AREAS
SATURDAY EVENING.  INTERACTIVE SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SUNDAY SHOW CAPES
NEAR 2000 J/KG.  BEST POTENTIAL WL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WHERE
THETA-E RIDGE IS ADVERTISED TO BE.  ON SUNDAY A MDT NWLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CWA.  ANOTHER FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
NERN PLAINS BY 00Z MONDAY AS A SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT
PLAINS.  WL UP POPS TO SCT CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY AFTN.  ON MONDAY...
NWLY FLOW WL CONTINUE OVER CO. ENUF MSTR SHUD BE PRESENT TO CONTINUE
A SLGT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTN/EVNG.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS AMPLIFIES A RIDGE OVER THE WEST WITH A
NW-NLY FLOW OVR CO.  ANOTHER FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA
TUESDAY AFTN/EVNG ANOTHER CHC STORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THU
AND FRI...GFS KEEP MSTR MORE FOCUSED MORE ON THE FOOTHILLS AND SERN
CO.  WL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC IN THOSE AREAS BUT DROP POPS FOR THE NERN
PLAINS. WL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. COOPER

.DEN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR AREAS IN AND
       NEAR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...ZONES 33>39.

COZ030>051-311200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1100 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 1 PM.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...STRONGER
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE TO THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINS
COULD POSE A PROBLEM IN THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS
ARE ALREADY SWOLLEN WITH SNOWMELT WATER.  THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A FEW MAY BECOME SEVERE.  A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL HELP STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS.  THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE...MOVING INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS BY
SATURDAY EVENING.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  A FEW WEAK COLD FRONTS ARE
EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RJK/FMC