Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
315 AM MDT SAT MAY 24 2003

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG ON THE PLAINS THIS
MRNG...WHILE UPSTRM A SURGE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING
OUT OF WY INTO NERN CO THIS MRNG...SEEING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S
AT RAPID CITY AND CASPER...AND EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP 5 TO 10
DEGREES OVER THE NERN CORNER AND NEAR THE WY BRDR THIS AFTN.  FLOW
WILL BE NLY THIS MRNING...AND NELY THIS AFTN...SO RESIDUAL MSTR WILL
POOL ALNG THE HIER TERRAIN.  AS A RESULT...HAVE TAKEN TSTMS OUT OF
FCST FOR EXTRM NE...LOWERED POPS ON THE REST OF THE PLAINS...AND
LEFT SCT TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVNG OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...DENVER
AREA AND THE FOOTHILLS.  STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS WILL
MOVE QUITE SLOWLY...WITH PW VALUES ABT 0.75 WE MIGHT HAVE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  EXCEPT FOR IN AND NEAR THE PALMER
DIVIDE...THINK MOST SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA.
PREVIOUS TEMP FCSTS LOOK GOOD. RTG

LONG TERM DISCUSSION: A BLOCKED UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FCST TO CONT
ACRS THE U.S. THRU MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK WITH A GENERALLY POSITIVE
TILT UPR RIDGE AXIS LOCKED IN PLACE JUST TO OUR WEST.  THIS WL KEEP
THE UPR WINDS OUT OF THE N AND NW THRU LATE IN THE WEEK.  AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRES WL COVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS WITH LOWER PRES ACRS
THE ROCKY MTN REGION.  THIS PATTERN WL ALLOW GULF MSTR TO ADVECT
INTO OUR CWA FROM TIME TO TIME.  CURRENTLY...IT APPRS SUN AND MON
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE COOLER NRN PLAINS
AIR MOVG INTO THE CWA THIS MRNG.  BY TUES AND WED...THE RIDGE ALOFT
SHIFTS A LTL CLOSER TO US AND TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE UPR 70S AND
LOWER 80S.  HOWEVER...WITH WARMER TEMPS AND THE CONTINUED PRESENCE
OF LOW LVL MSTR...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM DVLPMNT WL CONT TO BE A
THREAT.  ALL OF THESE FACTORS POINT TO A FCST PKG THAT LOOKS MUCH
THE SAME FROM DAY TO DAY.                    KDRBY

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-251200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1120 AM MDT SAT MAY 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

COOLER AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY.  EASTERLY WINDS WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
AND PALMER DIVIDE.  THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS REMAINS FAIRLY
STABLE...BUT THE DAYTIME HEATING WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS...MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT REMAIN LIGHT...SO THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING.  THUS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.  A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL
MAINTAIN THE CONDITIONS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY.  THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

LESZCYNSKI/GIMMESTAD