Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
250 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2003

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...MDLS MOVE SHT WV UPR TROF ACRS CNTRL RCKYS
TNGT.  STG UPWRD Q-G FORCING ALL NGT WITH SYS.  GUD LAPSE RATES AND
THETA E RDG IN ADV OF SYS THIS EVE OVR PLAINS.  LO LVL JET ON NERN
PLAINS WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR ISOLD SUPERCELLS WITH PSBL
TORNADOES ALTHO WITH LO FRZG LVL HAIL WILL BE THE BIGGEST SVR TSTM
THREAT.  WILL KEEP PCPN GOING ON PLAINS THRU THE NGT.  DWNSLP WNDS
WILL DVLP ALG ERN SLPS LATE TNGT AND END PCPN BUT SUM UPSLP OVR NERN
CORNER WILL PRODUCE STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ARND SNRS. AMS WILL
STABILIZE ON THU WITH SHT WV UPR RDG BLDG OVR CNTRL RCKYS. FCST
CAPES ONLY RANGE FM 70-115J/KG SO WILL KEEP ISOLD TSTMS IN
AFTN.  LTL CHNG IN TEMPS ALF...SO LTL CHNG IN SFC TEMPS.  WILL
GENLY COMPROMISE AMONGST MOS TEMP GDNC.
GARD...WFO BOULDER

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...ON THURSDAY NIGHT A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WL BE
OVER THE AREA AS TROF EXITS THE STATE.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROF WILL SLIP THROUGH ERN CO AFT 03Z FRIDAY...WITH WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NERN CO. WEAK UPSLOPE MAY ALSO FOR ISOLD RAIN
SHOWERS OR SOME DRIZZLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. ON
FRIDAY...A MODERATE TO STG SWLY FLOW ALF WL BE OVER CO AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM DROPS INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. BY LATE IN THE DAY HOWEVER SFC
WNDS WL SWITCH FM NLY TO ESELY AS SFC LOW STARTS TO FORM OVR SERN
CO...SO THERE COULD BE ANOTHER DENVER CYCONE SETUP LATE IN THE DAY.
IF THIS OCCURS THEN SCT TS WL AGAIN BE ON THE PLATTER FOR FRIDAY
AFTN/EVNG.  SHOWERS WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS QG ASCENT INCREASES FM
THE WEST AHD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LATEST GFS/ETA SWING THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROF ACRS CO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. CLOSED SYSTEM WL BE CENTERED OVR CENTRAL CO BY 12Z
SATURDAY. SYSTEM HAS GOOD DYNAMICS BUT TIMING MAY STILL BE AN ISSUE
AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSED OVR NV ON FRIDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WL
KEEP A CHC GOING FOR THAT TIME FRAME. IF TIMING RMNS ON TRACK
HOWEVER THAN LATER SHIFTS WL NEED TO BUMP POPS UP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.  ETA SOUNDING FOR DEN IS COMPLETELY SATURATED BY
SATURDAY AFTN. THE REST OF THE FCST RMNS UNSETTLED AS WELL. ZONAL
FLOW WL BE OVER CO SUNDAY WITH SOME TROFINESS STILL LINGERING OVER
THE WEST.  LATEST GFS INDICATES ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW OVER CO SUNDAY....SO WL KEEP A CHC OF SHOWERS AND TS THRU THE
WEEKEND.  PATTERN RMNS UNSETTLED GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS GFS
INDICATES YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPPING INTO CO TUE INTO WED. FOR NOW
WL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. COOPER

.DEN...NONE

COZ030>051-081200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1100 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND EASTERN SLOPES AND SPREAD TO THE EAST ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR
AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY FOR
MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  WITH A LOW FREEZING
LEVEL LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT...BUT ADEQUATE
WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE
TORNADO FORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF
WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE STATE.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.  THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE
GREATEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GARD/COOPER