Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
250 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2003

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TNGT/FRI...MDLS MAINTAIN UPR RDG OVR CNTRL
RCKYS WITH GUD SHT WV ROTATING ACRS AREA OVRNGT AND INTO ERLY FRI.
IN ADDITION PLUME OF MONSOONAL MSTR ENTRAINED IN UPR RDG ALSO SPRDS
ACRS AREA TNGT AND FRI.  ALL OF THIS WILL TEND TO MOISTEN THE AMS AT
MID AND HI LVLS AND WITH CONTD LO LVL MSTR OVR PLAINS WILL KEEP THE
AMS UNSTBL.  WILL INCRS PCPN TO SCT AND KEEP PCPN GOING ALL NGT AND
THRU FRI.  GUD CAPES TNGT AND AGN ON FRI...BUT THRT OF SVR SHUD BE
MINIMAL.  HVY RAIN MAY BE A BIGGER PROBLEM FM SLO MOVG STRMS DUE TO
LIGHT STEERING WNDS ALF.  WITH MORE CLDNS AND PCPN OVRNGT MIN TEMPS
WILL BE WRMR THAN USUAL AND MAX TEMPS FRI WILL BE COOLER.  GNLY FVR
THE LUK OF MESOETA TEMP GDNC.                    GARD...WFO BOULDER

LONG TERM DISCUSSION:  ALL MODELS CONT SHOWING THE STRONG AND
PERSISTENT UPR RIDGE OVR THE SWRN U.S. STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE
FCST PD.  HOWEVER...THE LONGER THE RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE...THE MORE
MSTR WILL GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH IT...AND CHANCES FOR PCPN WL
INCREASE.  FOR FRI EVENING AND AGAIN SAT...MODEL SNDGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING OVER AN INCH ON THE PLAINS. TEMPS
ARND 400 AND 500 MB ON FRI REMAIN ABT WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST
FEW DAYS...BUT THEN DROP A COUPLE DEGS ON SAT.  SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
VALUES WL BE BETWEEN 6 AND 8 G/KG.  DAYTIME HEATING WL DESTABILIZE
THE AMS AND ALLOW AFTN AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TO DVLP.  ITS
DIFFICULT TO FOCUS ON ANY OTHER DETAILS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST
PD.  UNTIL THE ERN PAC TROF BREAKS DOWN THE SWRN U.S. UPR
RIDGE...THE MSTR WL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE AND RECYCLE EACH
DAY WITH AFTN AND EVENING SHOWERS.  SLOW MOVING STORMS WL BE A
PROBLEM EACH DAY.

TEMPS ARE FCST TO WARM A FEW DEGREES OVR THE WEEKEND AFT TMRWS
COOLING...SO TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S WL BE PSBL AGN ON THE PLAINS.
                                            KDRBY
.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-081200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1100 AM MDT THU AUG 07 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND SPREAD OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS DURING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  DUE TO WEAK WINDS
ALOFT THE SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AT A FEW LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS.  AN ENTRAINED PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  LIGHT WINDS
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL CAUSE SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOP TO BE SLOW MOVING AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.  THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING
WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

GARD/DANKERS