Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
320 PM MDT SUN AUG 3 2003

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING OUT OVER NW CO
AND CENTRAL WY THIS AFTN...PRODUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN
FRONT RANGE FTHLS. AMS ON THE PLAINS REMAINS CAPPED FOR THE TIME
BEING...BUT SFC DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.  RECENT
ACARS SNDGS SHOW WARM AIR ABV 500 MB WHICH MUST BE ACTING AS THE
CAP.  WITH THE UPR FEATURE EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE WLY OVR TIME...THE
CAP ON THE PLAINS MAY ERODE ENOUGH IN THE EVENING FOR CONVECTION ON
THE PLAINS TO GET STARTED.  IF THE SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS ARE ABLE TO
TAP INTO THE LOW LVL MSTR ADVECTING IN FM THE SE...THEN STORMS COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF HVY RAIN.  BUT STORMS SHOULD ALSO HAVE ENOUGH
FORWARD MOTION TO AVOID ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS.

FOR MON...AMS WL BE A LITTLE DRIER AND COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT
ENOUGH MSTR SHOULD LINGER THAT SHOWERS CAN NOT BE REMOVED FROM THE
FCST.  IT IS PSBL THAT A SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY OVR NE NV COULD BE
MOVING OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.  WITH COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT...CONVECTIVE DVLPMT WOULD BE LESS INHIBITED.  FOR
NOW...ISOLD POPS WL BE IN THE FCST.                      KDRBY

LONG TERM DISCUSSION:  UPPER HIGH WILL REBOUND WED/THU...BUT TUE
LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION DAY.  IT WILL BE DRYING ALOFT BUT THERE ALSO
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE COOLING AT ALL LEVELS.  I WILL PUT IN A SLIM
CHANCE OF STORMS ON THE PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR WED INTO THE WEEKEND IT WILL BE DRIER WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT.  NOT ENOUGH WARMING TO PRECLUDE WEAK MOUNTAIN
STORMS...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SPARSE.  MID SHIFT UPPED
TEMPERATURES A BIT...WHICH LOOKS GOOD.  OPERATIONAL MRF STILL
HINTING AT SUBTLE MOISTURE INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND...WHILE SOME
OTHER MODELS SUGGEST NO CHANGE.  GIVEN RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE AND
PERSISTENT COOL BIAS...WILL STICK WITH THE SAME FORECAST UNTIL WE
SEE BETTER INDICATIONS.  GIMMESTAD

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-041200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1115 AM MDT SUN AUG 03 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.  ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

LATER TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO AND WYOMING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MOVE FROM THE FOOTHILLS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THESE NOCTURNAL
STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.  THE
HIGHEST THREAT OF THESE HEAVY RAINSHOWERS WILL BE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 76 TO THE WYOMING BORDER.  THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS.  THE PLAINS WILL BE HOT AND DRY WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

DANKERS/BARJENBRUCH