Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
310 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2003

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CWA...
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OCCURRING.  WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND AN INCH...SO STORMS ARE DUMPING DECENT RAINFALL.  SOME
FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED.  WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
SINCE SOME FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING AND A WATCH WILL ONLY CREATE
CONFUSION.  STORMS ARE MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...AND
RADAR SHOWING NOT MUCH THREAT OF TRAINING AT THIS TIME.  SURFACE
DATA SHOWS NORTHEAST SURGE THROUGH MUCH OF PLAINS...SEEMS TO BE
STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE SLIGHTLY.  SPC SHOWS NORTHEAST COLORADO
IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THIS EVENING...THOUGH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WELL TO THE NORTHEAST.  COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO MOVE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ZONES.  ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT
AS MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANYTHING UPSTAIRS TO KEEP STORMS GOING.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND HUMIDITES SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.  WITH ALL THE RECENT RAIN...WILL MENTION SOME FOG IN THE
PLAINS ZONES.  ON WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AS
MODELS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND AROUND A HALF INCH FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.  DOES NOT APPEAR THAT STORMS WILL BE AS NUMEROUS AS
PREVIOUS DAYS AND SHOULD NOT DUMP AS MUCH RAIN.  HOWEVER...DIV-Q
PROGS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
18Z.  WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABLITY...STORMS SHOULD
AGAIN DEVELOP WITH HELP OF THE WAVE.  WILL UP THE POPS A CATEGORY
FOR MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.  WILL NEED TO ADD POPS TO NORTHEAST
PLAINS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG.  SHEAR
VERY WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORM.  MAYBE A MICROBURST
OR TWO.  AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR 90.  D-L

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...WED NGT-FRI...MDLS MAINTAIN UPPER RDG OVER
GRT BASIN BUT MOV CNTR OF UPPER RDG TO ARND 4 CRNRS ON FRI.  BOTH
MESOETA AND AVN SHOW NWLY FLO ALOFT WHICH WILL MOVE DRIER AIR OVR
AREA ON WED AND THU...BUT THIS IS NOT SHWN IN NGM AND MESOETA UPR
AIR SOUNDINGS WHICH STILL HAVE SIZEABLE CAPES EVN THO PRECIPITIBL
WATERS ARE LESS.  THIS TOGETHER WITH LITTLE OR NO PCPN ACROSS AREA
ON AVN AND MESOETA CREATES QUITE A BIT OF INCONSISTNCY IN THE MDLS
THEMSELVS.  ATTM WILL FAVOR THE DRIER AMS AND LIMIT PCPN TO THE HI
COUNTRY AND ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND KEEP THE NERN PLAINS DRY.
WILL MENTION ISOLD AFTN SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS ALL OF FCST AREA AS
INITIAL WV OF MONSOONAL MSTR STARTS TO MOVE OVR AREA.  GDNC TEMPS
ARE MORE IN LINE WITH YSTDYS THINKNG THAT DRIER AMS AND LESS CLDS
OVR AREA WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 90S ON THE
PLAINS.  LIKEWISE MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE A SMIDGEN LOWER DUE TO MORE
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

IN XTNDD PRD...SAT-TUE...MDLS MOVE CNTR OF UPR HI OVER NM AND WRN
TX WHICH WILL ALLOW UPR FLO OF TROPICAL MONSOONAL MSTR FM MEXICO
TO STREAM NWD INTO THE CNTRL RCKYS.  WITH MORE MSTR WILL KEEP
POPS IN CHC/SCT CATEGORY AND MAX TEMPS ON COOLER SIDE THRU PRD.

GARD...WFO BOULDER

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-301200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1050 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  IN ADDITION A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO BE
SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND COMBINED
WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WYOMING...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN MOST AREAS.  IN ADDITION A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE
FOOTHILLS.  THUS THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF DENVER.  THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DRY THE AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  A MONSOONAL FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
ALOFT WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

D-L/GARD...WFO BOULDER