Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
235 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2003

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...STLT LOOP SHWS WK MONSOONAL FLO OF MID AND
HI LVL MSTR FM AZ INTO CNTRL RCKYS.  THIS COUPLED WITH INCRSD MSTR
OVR HI PLAINS FM SELY SFC WNDS HAS INCRSD THE INSTBLTY ESPCLY OVER
AND NR THE EASTERN SLPS OF MTNS.  AMS MAY RMN CAPPED OVR NE CORNER
OF STA THIS EVE.  THREAT OF PSBL SVR MAY NOT MATERIALIZE...BUT STG
MICROBURST WINDS MAY STILL OCCUR.  AMS WILL DRY ON PLAINS WED WITH
DEVLPG LEE TROFG.  THUS WILL REDUCE THRT OF TSTMS TO ISOLD AS FCST
CAPES ARE ONLY 100-200J/KG.  TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON HOT SIDE AND EVN
WRMR ON WED THAN TDA.  WILL GENLY FVR THE HIR MOS TEMP GDNC.
GARD...WFO BOULDER

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BROAD RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER COLORADO.  H7
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 17-18C FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SO
WL BUMP AFTN TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH DAYS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.  SOME
SUBTROPICAL MSTR TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENUF TO
MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
AVN/GFS BRING A WEAK SURGE INTO THE NERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTN WHICH
MAY HELP GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.  IN ADDITION
...REMNANTS OF HURRICANE CLAUDETTE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE MAY
FINALLY SLIP INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  FOR THIS
REASON WILL UP THE POPS TO SCT ALG THE URBAN CORRIDOR FOR THOSE DAYS.
INTERACTIVE SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO
AROUND AN INCH.  NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.  RIDGE MAY DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK AS A
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES.  WL KEEP A SLGT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORM GOING EACH DAY. COOPER

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-161200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1100 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD TO THE EAST OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR
AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR
WITH THE PRINCIPAL THREAT BEING STRONG DOWNBURST THUNDERSTORM WINDS...
RATHER THAN LARGE HAIL.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AGAINST THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL INCREASE THE INSTABILITY OVER
THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS AND THE URBAN CORRIDOR.  THE HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS.
A HIGH FREEZING LEVEL WILL TEND TO INHIBIT THE OCCURRENCE OF LARGE
HAIL.  OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF COLORADO A FRONTAL INVERSION
MAY KEEP THE AIR MASS CAPPED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

GARD/FMC

LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
558 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2003

...PRELIMINARY STORM REPORT FOR JULY 15 2003...

TME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0125 PM    LITTLETON                 CO   NON TSTM WIND GUST
07/15/03   ARAPAHOE                       62 MPH

0535 PM    3.5 NW PAWNEE BUTTES      CO   70 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
07/15/03   WELD                           ESTIMATED BY SPOTTER

0535 PM    3.5 NW PAWNEE BUTTES      CO   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/15/03   WELD

0538 PM    5 N JACKSON RESERVOIR     CO   0.75 INCH HAIL
07/15/03   MORGAN

BENTON