Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
225 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2003

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER NERN
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS POSSIBLY NOCTURNAL COOLING ALOFT KEEPS
ACTIVITY GOING.  ALSO APPEARS ACTIVITY IS ALIGNING ITSELF ON WRN
EDGE OF WK 250 MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY AXIS.  WOULD IMAGINE THIS
CONVECTION WL GRADUALLY END BEFORE SUNRISE.  APPEARS TODAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH REGARD TO HI TEMPS AS GRIDDED DATA SHOWS
LITTLE CHG TO LOW LVL TEMP FIELDS.  AS FAR AS CHANCES FOR AFTN TSTMS
AIRMASS OVR NERN CO WL BE QUITE UNSTABLE WITH SFC BASED CAPES AOA
2000 J/KG HOWEVER WRM LAYER NR 700 MB MAY PUT A LID ON CONVECTION.
SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPS WL HAVE TO WRM INTO THE MID 90S TO BREAK CAP
WHICH AT THIS POINT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.  FOR TONIGHT IF ANY TSTMS
DO DVLP THEY SHOULD END EARLY IN THE EVENING.  HOWEVER NERN PLAINS
WL STILL BE ON WRN EDGE OF 250 MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY AXIS AND IF
ANY MINOR COOLING OCCURS IN THE MID LVLS COULD POSSIBLY SEE A REPEAT
EPISODE OF WHAT IS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING.  KLEYLA

LONG TERM DISCUSSION:  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MODEL GRIDS FOR
THE LATER PERIODS.  THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO STAY CENTERED OVER
THE MIDDLE OF ARIZONA...WITH NORTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.  AGAIN...NEUTRAL SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS INDICATED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY
STILL HAS A BIT OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO IT.  THIS KEEPS SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOME OF THE EAST.   GRIDS ARE SHOWING A DECENT
THETA-E AXIS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS FOR LATE DAY SUNDAY.  ON MONDAY
...THIS AXIS PUSHES WELL EAST OF THE STATE.  CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
FAIR MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SIGNIFICANT
DRYING ON MONDAY.   CONSIDERING 00Z EARLIER THIS EVENING.  LAST
NIGHTS 00Z ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING NEARLY TWICE THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT THIS EVENINGS ACTUAL SOUNDING
MEASURED.  SO REALITY AND PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST TOOL
THIS PACKAGE.  WILL KEEP THE 10 PERCENT POPS GOING FOR LATE DAY
/EVENING ON SUNDAY FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL GO A BIT
HIGHER OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST AND KEEP THINGS GOING LATE AS YOU HAVE
RIGHT NOW.  TEMPERATURE WISE...GRIDS SHOW READINGS ON SUNDAY TO WARM
BACK UP TO WHAT TODAYS HIGHS WERE.  MONDAY COOLS A BIT...MAYBE 1 C
IS ALL.  IN THE EXTENDED...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER RIDGE STAYING PUT.  THE EUROPEAN MIGRATE THE RIDGE CENTER
RIGHT OVER US.  ANY OF THOSE SOLUTIONS EQUATE TO NO MONSOON.   WILL
LEAVE THINGS ALONE.    RJK

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-121200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
345 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...INSUFFICIENT HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL
WYOMING WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE IS ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND ESPECIALLY LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE AMPLE HEATING HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE AND THE THREAT
OF STORMS IS A LITTLE HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ELBERT
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.

THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
BETTER MOISTURE FROM EASTERN WELD COUNTY SOUTHEAST TOWARD FORT
MORGAN...AKRON...AND LIMON.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL GENERALLY BE AFTER 7 PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE.

SATURDAY MAY BRING ANOTHER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO...ALTHOUGH THE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
LOWER.  SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING SO NO
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY.  ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE BACK IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 7 PM OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

GIMMESTAD/COOPER/SWE

COZ042>051-120300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
850 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED FOR MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
LINCOLN COUNTY...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

SWE