Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
305 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2003

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MOVING
QUICKLY THROUGH NORTHERN COLORADO.  HOWEVER...NEXT AREA OF
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA...
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER
VAPOR LOOPS.  POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE
URBAN CORRIDOR THIS EVENING WHERE DECENT SHEAR AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EXISTS.  LAPS DATA SHOWS CAPES AROUND 1500 J/JG ACROSS MUCH
OF THE PLAINS.  ONCE CIN DISSIPATES...STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN THEMSELVES.  HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT
DUE TO THE SHEAR...ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.  TORNADO WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO.  MODELS SUGGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD
VACATE THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.  MESOETA
BOUNDARY WIND AND HUMIDITY INDICATES LITTLE CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS OR
FOG.  STILL...POTENTIAL FOR MOIST EASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM ANY STORMS
ACROSS KANSAS.  WILL ADD SOME FOG FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT.  SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A MUCH DRIER DAY...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES.  CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ONLY A BIT OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER MOUNTAINS DURING AFTERNOON.  WITH INCREASING LAPSE
RATES EXPECTED DURING AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP SOME STORMS OVER THE
ALPINE AREAS...LEAVING PLAINS DRY.  TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS GRIDS
SHOW A GOOD WARMUP...WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING TEMPS IN THE 80S.
THIS LOOK REASONABLE.  D-L

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...FROM ONE PERSISTENT WX PATTERN TO ANOTHER.
AFTER THIS EVENINGS UPPER TROF PASSES ACRS THE STATE...SWLY FLOW WL
BECOME ENTRENCHED ACRS THE REGION.  THE MEAN TROF WL REMAIN OVR THE
DESERT SW WHILE A STRONG UPR RIDGE SET UP OVR THE SERN U.S.  AT THE
SFC...A WEAK LEE TROF WL REMAIN OVR THE ERN CO PLAINS.  VARYING
AMNTS OF MID LVL MSTR EMBEDDED IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WL FUEL AFTN
CONVECTION OVR THE MTNS EACH DAY.  CONDS ON THE PLAINS WL REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY...BUT SOME LOW LVL MSTR AND INSTABILITY MAY SNEAK INTO
THE ERN COUNTIES WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DVLP.
TEMPS ACRS THE REGION SHOULD BE ARND TO JUST ABV SEASONAL NORMALS.

ON WED...GFS CONTS SHOWING A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACRS THE NE PLAINS
WHICH SHOULD SHAVE 10 DEGREES OFF AFTN HIGHS ON THURS.  THURS WL
ALSO BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PCPN ON THE PLAINS AS ELY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ADVECT MSTR INTO THE STATE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
                                      KDRBY

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-211200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1100 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.  A BRIEF TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A BRIGGSDALE TO KIOWA LINE.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  IN
ADDITION...A DENVER CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
CONVERGENCE ZONE TO FORM.  THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT JUST EAST OF THE DENVER AREA
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION MAY ALSO HELP TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS.

D-L/DANKERS

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
236 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2003

...PRELIMINARY STORM REPORT FOR JUNE 20 2003...

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1225 PM    GOLDEN                   CO    0.75 INCH HAIL
06/20/03   JEFFERSON

1240 PM    5 SW PARKER              CO    0.75 INCH HAIL
06/20/03   DOUGLAS

1247 PM    PARKER                   CO    0.75 INCH HAIL
06/20/03   DOUGLAS

1254 PM    CENTENNIAL               CO    0.75 INCH HAIL
06/20/03   ARAPAHOE

0100 PM    ARVADA                   CO    1.00 INCH HAIL
06/20/03   JEFFERSON

JK