Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
229 AM CST SUN MAR 09 2003

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF ALABAMA WILL
MOVE MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.  VORT MAX/IMPULSE
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA MAINLY THIS MORNING.  LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA AT THE PRESENT TIME.
FOR TODAY...WILL GENERALLY GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS...WITH SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.  WILL ALSO
MENTION THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

RAPID DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.  NICE DAY ON TAP FOR MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES CENTRAL SECTIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH.

FOR TEMPERATURES USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THEN WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE ON MONDAY DUE TO MORE EXPECTED SUNSHINE
AND ONLY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.

LOOKING AT THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
RATHER QUIET AS WEAKER ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS.  WILL SHOW AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON AN MENTION OF PRECIP FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

BHM 65/38/63/38/66 10000
MGM 68/42/68/41/70 4-000

.BHM...NONE.

ALZ011>015-017>050-082100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
130 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE (THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF TEXAS.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PANOLA...TO
DEMOPOLIS...TO TROY...TO TEXASVILLE.  THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL.  NORTH OF THIS LINE...SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG PARTS OF THE BLACK
WARRIOR RIVER AT SELDEN LOCK AND DAM...AND ON THE TOMBIGBEE
RIVER AT DEMOPOLIS LOCK AND DAM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH ARE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH STRONG TO SEVERE THRESHOLDS AT THIS
TIME.

BOTH THE BLACK WARRIOR RIVER AT SELDEN LOCK AND DAM...AND THE
TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT DEMOPOLIS LOCK AND DAM...ARE EXPECTED TO CREST
ON SUNDAY...AND FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD
MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.