Severe Thunderstorm Warning 405, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
213 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2003

.SHORT TERM...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS SHOWING UP IN THE DATA FROM SOUTH OF
MEMPHIS TO MERIDIAN.  THERE IS AN AXIS OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH.  SUSPECT THIS TROUGH COULD BE A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OR PROPAGATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOTS OF CONVECTION OVER
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE
JUST BEGINNING TO FORM BEHIND THE TROUGH...AS THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE WAS BEING REACHED.

MODELS INDICATE A BUSY NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MCSS DEVELOPING TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME.  CONVECTION MAY
MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED ALONG OR EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH DAY 5.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CWA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.  WILL GO ALONG WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF
LOWERING POPS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT IF THE AXIS OF
THE TROUGH DOES NOT PUSH EAST...IT COULD BE MORE OF THE SAME.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
BHM 071/088/071/089/072 40/60/50/50/30
MGM 071/090/071/090/073 30/50/40/50/30

.BHM...NONE.

70

ALZ011>015-017>050-042100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
202 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE (THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)...

NORTH ALABAMA...ROUGHLY FROM THE CITIES OF ALICEVILLE...CLANTON...
AND AUBURN NORTHWARD...HAVE BEEN PLACED UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA.  SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY GROW STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM OR MOVE INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD START TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY 9 PM THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

AN ACTIVE JET STREAM AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS THIS WEEK...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
MORE ORGANIZED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

BEYOND THAT...IT APPEARS THE REGION WILL RETURN TO A WEATHER
PATTERN A BIT MORE TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME...THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH LESS ORGANIZED AFTERNOON VARIETY STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

AREA WIDE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY.  HOWEVER...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.