Severe Thunderstorm Warning 376, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
311 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS PUT ME BEHIND SCHEDULE WITH THIS
DISCUSSION.  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST
AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF NORTH ALABAMA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION WEST OF TUPELO...SO LIKELY POPS WILL BE
CONFINED TO NORTHERN COUNTIES.   ALL CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN
LATER THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT LITTLE ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANOTHER MCS LIKELY TO AFFECT AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH TIMING
PROBABLY SIMILAR TO TODAY.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH BEST UPPER LIFT AND DYNAMICS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT...AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW
ALABAMA.  THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS ANYTIME THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS DYNAMICS VERY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH RAIN
PULLING OUT OF SOUTH ALABAMA WEDNESDAY MORNING.  MUCH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPPER TROF EXITS ALABAMA FAIRLY QUICKLY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF WILL AFFECT AREA
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

BHM 72 87 67 84 63 / 70 60 70 20
MGM 72 90 71 87 65 / 40 50 70 40

.BHM...NONE.

58/ROSE

ALZ011>015-017>050-212000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ...CORRECTION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
100 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE (THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
LIVINGSTON TO CLANTON TO WEDOWEE.  IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA...THE WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS AREA IS
ALSO IN THE HIGH CATEGORY.  THIS MEANS THERE IS A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG PULSE TYPE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN
THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

THE WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINING THIRD OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA IS MODERATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  AN UNUSUALLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.