Severe Thunderstorm Warning 268, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
230 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN CHANCES ARE THE SHORT TERM
PROBLEMS.

CURRENTLY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT OVER NORTHERN
COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM.  STRONGEST STORMS AT 215 PM WERE NW OF
BIRMINGHAM.  WITH HIGH INSTABILITY...CAPES 2500-3000...LIFTED
INDICES BETWEEN -5 AND -8...EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.  WILL
MONITOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL...IN FAR NORTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT
NOTHING TO SEVERE IS EXPECTED AS WARM MID LEVEL CAP SHOULD INHIBIT
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION THERE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIE DOWN THIS EVENING.  WILL
GO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH OVERNIGHT WERE FORCING WILL BE BETTER.  WILL
MENTION FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATE SOUTH WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS.  GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT...AROUND 70 DEGREES.

SATURDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE WEST...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP.  SOME STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR AND HIGH INSTABILITY.

SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARLY ON TOP OF THE AREA.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

BEYOND SUNDAY...KEPT PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AS WET PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT FORECAST TO
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.  A FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS
AREA BY MIDWEEK.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY.
BHM  071/087 069/082 067 24564
MGM  069 088 070/084 068 13364

.BHM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR ALZ011>015-
017>029-034...ROUGHLY NORTH OF A CARROLLTON TO WEDOWEE LINE.

MBS/91

ALZ011>015-017>050-162000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
123 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE (THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)...

A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF A TUSCALOOSA TO
ANNISTON LINE THIS AFTERNOON.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.  BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH.  SOME LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL LAST WEEK MAY SEE CONDITIONS AGGRAVATED
BY THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL BE REQUIRED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH OF A TUSCALOOSA TO
ANNISTON LINE.  THEY MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

ALZ024-162130-

THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
328 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

.A THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM
CDT...

.SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE FROM AN APPROACHING THUNDERSTORM.

AT 323 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF WEST JEFFERSON...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND NEAR WEST JEFFERSON...
GRAYSVILLE...MORRIS...KIMBERLY...GARDENDALE...FULTONDALE AND PINSON
THROUGH 430 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS SMALL HAIL. HAIL UP TO ONE
HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS IN THE
VICINITY OF THESE STORMS...TAKE SHELTER NOW.

LAT...LON 3383 8691 3363 8710 3357 8662 3376 8658