Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
326 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED NEXT 48 HOURS WITH FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.  MCS
OVER TENNESSEE TRACKING EASTWARD WILL NOT AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA COUNTIES.   NEXT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN THE DEVELOPMENT
STAGES OVER ARKANSAS WITH MESOSCALE PARAMETERS INDICATING DEEP
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER. COLD TOP CLOUDS OVER
TEXAS IN ADVANCE OF JET MAX FORECAST TO MOVE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY
18Z TODAY.  THIS JET MAX SHOULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OR DEVELOPING INTO
NORTH ALABAMA AS MORNING PROGRESSES.  SPC HAS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 20 OUTLOOKED FOR MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THIS OFFICE LATER THIS
MORNING HIGHLIGHTING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

ETA/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN QPF FIELDS THRU 24 HOURS...WITH BOTH
MODELS ALSO SHOWING A RAINFALL BULLS-EYE IN THE 24 TO 36 HOUR TIME
FRAME...BUT A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES APART.  ETA SEEMS TO BE TO FAR
NORTH WITH PCPN MAX TONIGHT...AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION WOULD FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.  BEYOND TUESDAY...
CONVECTIVE TRENDS SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM OKLAHOMA
TO KENTUCKY.  THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALABAMA SHOULD BECOME MORE DIURNAL
AND SCATTERED.

IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN CHANCES HANG AROUND NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT CHANCES A
LITTLE BETTER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SHORT WAVE TROF BRUSHES NORTH
ALABAMA.

BHM  83 69 84 69/  70 70 40 30
MGM  86 70 87 69/  40 40 40 20

.BHM...NONE.

ALZ011>015-017>050-051400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
711 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

ALABAMA REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS MORNING...
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE.  THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE AT SOME
PART TODAY.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR PEAK INTENSITY DURING THE HEAT OF
THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS ALABAMA REMAINS IN A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
THE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF EACH DAYS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGELY
INFLUENCED BY WHAT HAPPENS THE DAY BEFORE.  SO THERE REMAINS A
RELATIVELY LOW DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS OF WHICH DAYS
ARE MORE FAVORED TO RECEIVE SEVERE WEATHER THAN OTHERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

ALZ011>015-017>050-051700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
654 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2003

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED NORTH ALABAMA UNDER A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY WITH THE SEVERE THREAT LINGERING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  LARGE HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH THIS SYSTEM
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS ALONG AND GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM CARROLLTON...TO BIRMINGHAM...TO ANNISTON.  A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

AT THIS TIME...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR
TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS AS THE MOVE THROUGH
NORTH ALABAMA.  HOWEVER...WINDS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.
IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE AIRMASS IN THIS AREA WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE
AND ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS HAS THE CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH
THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

NOW IS THE TIME TO REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLAN.  REMIND
YOURSELF OF WHERE YOU NEED TO GO IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TORNADO WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS...AND BE
READY TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOU.

ALZ013-015-051245-

THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
710 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

.A THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR FAYETTE AND WALKER COUNTIES
UNTIL 745 AM CDT...

.SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE FROM AN APPROACHING THUNDERSTORM.

AT 709 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM OVER ELDRIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND NEAR STUDDARDS
CROSSROADS...ELDRIDGE...CARBON HILL...NAUVOO AND CURRY THROUGH 745 AM
CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS SMALL HAIL. HAIL UP TO ONE
HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS IN THE
VICINITY OF THESE STORMS...TAKE SHELTER NOW.

LAT...LON 3392 8770 3392 8764 3397 8764 3400 8753
          3400 8712 3388 8709 3379 8767

ALZ022-051315-

THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
737 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

.A THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PICKENS COUNTY UNTIL 815 AM
CDT...

.SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE FROM AN APPROACHING THUNDERSTORM.

AT 734 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF PICKENSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND NEAR PICKENSVILLE...
CARROLLTON...REFORM...HARPERS MILL AND GORDO THROUGH 815 AM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS SMALL HAIL. HAIL UP TO ONE
HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS IN THE
VICINITY OF THESE STORMS...TAKE SHELTER NOW.

LAT...LON 3324 8832 3339 8830 3343 8784 3321 8784