Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
300 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2003

CONCERNS WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN DRY CONDITIONS AND FIRE THREAT.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO WESTERN
CWA WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH.

WILL USE THE MESO-ETA/ETA BLEND FOR GRIDS THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL LIFT CUTS ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY AS SURFACE TROF DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST TO EAST ADDING TO
LIFT AND INSTABILITY. MLCAPES RANGING UPWARD NEAR 3000 J/KG
AND LIS -4 TO -8...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

MINOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THRU THE RIDGE SUNDAY BUT NO UPPER
OR SURFACE SUPPORT FOR PRECIP EXPECTED. WARM UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO HELP
USHER IN WARMER AIR TO THE CWA. THE WARM DRY UPPER RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER THE REGION THRU MID WEEK WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIP ON THURSDAY.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HEATING UP AGAIN...ESPECIALLY WEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL. LIGHTNING ALREADY CAUSING SEVERAL FIRES LAST
NIGHT IN THE WEST. NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY TODAY.

.BIS...NONE.

RGT

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-100945-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
451 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

TURNER

NDZ001-009-017-091205-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILLISTON ND
503 AM CDT (403 AM MDT) SAT AUG 9 2003

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
DIVIDE...WILLIAMS AND MCKENZIE COUNTIES THIS MORNING. AT 501 AM CDT
LOCAL RADAR INDICATED THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE LOCATED
BETWEEN AMBROSE AND CROSBY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AROUND DAYBREAK.

THOMSON