Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
155 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2003

OVERVIEW...GNRLY DRIER PTRN IN STORE FOR THE FCST AREA. SOME DIFFS
IN THE MDLS WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND PCPN POTNL ASSCD WITH A
BACK-DOOR TYPE CDFNT SUNDAY NGT INTO MONDAY.

CDFNT CRNTLY NEAR A UCA-ELM LINE AND CONTINUES TO HEAD SEWD. WILL
KEEP CHC POPS FOR THE SRN CATSKILLS AND MOST OF NE PA FOR SCT EVNG
ACTIVITY. THUS FAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY WEAK, BUT SOME LIMITED
POTNL FOR DVLPMNT AHEAD OF FNT INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS. ANY
CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO VERY LOW FFG
VALUES IN THIS AREA. OTRW XPCT SKIES TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
SCT-BKN CLDS AND LGT NW WINDS, ALONG WITH LOWERING TDS SHUD
MINIMIZE THREAT FOR AREAS OF FOG, ALTHO SOME VLYS MAY SEE PATCHY FOG
TWDS DAYBREAK.

SFC HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE RGN, BUT THERE ARE STILL
RIPPLES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT, WITH LOW LVL MSTR TO WORK ON. TDAS
SAT PIX SHOW AN XTNSV AREA OF STRATO-CU OVER THE CNTRL GTLAKES, AND
IT APPEARS THIS WILL ROTATE INTO THE RGN TMRW. I DONT THINK IT WILL
BE ENTIRELY OVC ACRS UPSTATE NY AS PER ETA MOS GUIDANCE, BUT DO XPCT
PLENTY OF BKN CLDS WITH OCNL BREAKS OF SUNSHINE HERE MORE SUNSHINE
LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY ACRS THE CNTRL SRN TIER/FINGER LAKES AND WRN
MOHAWK VLY AS AXIS OF MSTR BEGINS TO PULL OUT. A PARTLY SUNNY FCST
MAY SUFFICE FOR NE PA AND FAR SRN CATSKILLS WHICH WILL BE FURTHEST
REMOVED FROM THE LOW LVL MSTR. RIDGING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR FOR FRI
NGT AND SATURDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. NO REAL PRBLMS WITH MOS TEMPS.

EXTENDED FORECAST (SAT NIGHT - THU)

MODELS INDICATING PASSAGE OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.  ETA IS FASTER...AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH SUPPORTING 500
MB WAVE...WHILE GFS SLOWER/WEAKER.  VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
TEND TO KEEP THINGS DRY...SO WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER ATTM.
CWA WILL GENERALLY BE UNDERNEATH 500 MB RIDGE...THUS WILL KEEP
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DRY.  GENERALLY FOLLOWED MEX
TEMPS...ALTHOUGH WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER LATE IN THE PERIOD.

AVIATION

VFR CONDS SHOULD CONTINUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
SHRA/TSRA CAUSING MVFR...PATICULARLY AT KBGM/KAVP.  VFR WILL RETURN
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVE...THEN CIGS WILL BECOME BKN AGAIN AS TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS THROUGH...LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS.

.BGM...NONE.

DAYS 1-2: BRADY
DAYS 3-7/AVIATION: CEMPA

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-042230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
435 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.  LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.  ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS IN NEW YORK WHERE HEAVY RAIN
FELL LAST NIGHT, LOCALIZED RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE.

PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCT ALBSPSBGM FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

NYZ057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-072-050400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
425 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AS THIS
FRONT APPROACHES.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES
OF AN INCH PER HOUR, WHICH WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL LAST NIGHT, INCLUDING LACKAWANNA COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF WAYNE COUNTY, WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING IF RAINFALL RATES APPROACH AN INCH PER HOUR.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...OR
VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV.