Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1040 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2003

UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING...EXPAND FLOOD WATCH...AND EXTEND
LKLY POPS UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

DECIDED TO INCLUDE EXPAND FFA TO INCLUDE FINGER LAKES REGION...THUS
COVERING ENTIRE CWA.  AS OF THIS MORNING...SEE VERYY LITTLE
DIFFERENCE IN FLOOD THREAT ACROSS ENTIRE CWA.  ALL FACTORS POINT
TOWARD SLOW MOVING/TRAINING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.  CELL MOTION
ON THE ORDER OF 5 KTS...MBE VECTORS JUST UNDER 10 KTS...PW 1.7
INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OVER 11K FT.  EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY
LIMIT INSTABILITY...WHICH COULD SLIGHTLY REDUCE FLOOD THREAT...BUT
EVEN WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S...FORECAST CAPES STILL IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.   MJC

----- 355 AM DISCUSSION -----

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS SRN CANADA TODAY AS SFC
WAVE AND MID-LEVEL VORT MAX MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC.
PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAIN GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ETA SHOWS A MORE PRONOUNCED VORT MAX
WITH 700 MB OMEGA AND PRECIP INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
AFTN. HEAVIEST PRECIP CONTINUES ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES
THIS EVENING, LIFTING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WEAKENING. WILL ISSUE
FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL BUT NW ZONES WHICH HAVENT SEEN AS MUCH RAIN
PAST FEW DAYS. SINCE BEST PRECIP CHCS THERE WILL BE LATE TODAY THRU
TONIGHT, DAY SHIFT CAN THROW UP A WATCH THERE IF IT LOOKS LIKE
FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT TONIGHT. WATCH WILL BE JUST FOR TODAY SE
ZONES, THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL.

MONDAY NIGHT...SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP TO NORTHERN PART OF
THE REGION WITH SOME MID LEVEL SUPPORT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY
POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS THEN DROP BACK TO CHC AS FRONT STARTS TO
WASH OUT AND DIURNAL HEATING ENDS.

TUESDAY...VERY MOIST AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE. INVERTED TROF REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. BUT NOT AS MUCH MID LVL
SUPPORT AS TODAY. AVN PRECIP MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
AXIS OF INVERTED TROF. ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT INSTABILITY
TO KEEP CHC POPS FOR MORNING AND LIKELY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE THE MAIN STORY AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AT ELM/ITH/BGM THROUGH
ABOUT 13Z.  CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN
THE MORE NORTHERN TAF SITES (SYR/UCA), PRIMARILY IN THE MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR RANGE.  STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID TO LATE
MORNING (AFTER 13Z) TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS, WHICH SHOULD THEN LAST
UNTIL ABOUT MID-AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, TRIGGERING A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN.  WE BROUGHT THUNDER INTO
ALL THE TAF SITES BY 19Z, THEN HAVE IT PERSIST WELL INTO THE
EVENING.  LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

.BGM...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING ENTIRE CWA

SHORT TERM...JML
AVIATION...JUREWICZ

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-121000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
425 AM MON AUG 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY AND
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SEE WATCH STATEMENT ALBFFABGM FOR MORE
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.