Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
335 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA EXCEPT FAR NRN ZONES. PERSISTENT
SHORT WAVES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION HAS GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER THE NE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A GOOD
TROPICAL FEED ALONG WITH A LONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC INFLOW. THIS ALONG
WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THROUGH 06Z WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHTTIME
PERIOD. WITH WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS A FLOOD WATCH WAS
WARRANTED.

SUNDAY...WITH WEAK SFC WAVE IN VCNTY AND WEAK SFC TROF TO CROSS AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...CONTINUED WITH LIKELY AFTERNOON POPS AND CHC
FOR MORNING HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN ALL ZONES BUT FAR SE ZONES AS SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION
LATE DAY.

EXTENDED PERIOD (MON NGT - SAT)

MODELS INDICATING A MORE PROGRESSIVE +PNA PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES INDICATING THAT FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA SOMETIME
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT STILL THINK ITS TOO EARLY TO FINE TUNE TIMING
OF PRECIP...SO WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT REMOVE
THEM TUES NIGHT.  MODELS ALSO INDICATING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL BE
PUSHING IN...SO HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS...STAYING NEAR
(FOR MINS) OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE (FOR MAXES) SEASONAL NORMS.  ONCE THE
SFC RIDGE MOVES IN ON WED...LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON...DROPPING VFR CONDITIONS TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
LIFR...AT ANY TIME.  AS FLOW OFF ATLANTIC INCREASES PREVAILING
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR THIS EVENING.  CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...AND THAT COMBINED WITH FOG WILL SEND
SOME LOCATIONS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR (MOST LIKELY ELM/BGM/ITH) AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.BGM...FLOOD WATCH THOUGH TONIGHT...
NYZ022>025-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.

SHORT TERM...RRM
EXTENDED/AVIATION...CEMPA

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-101045-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
650 AM SAT AUG 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER OR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING OR URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-092230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1115 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

A JUICY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION AGAIN TODAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

SINCE MANY AREAS HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE RAPID FLOODING
OF SMALL STREAMS AND LOW-LYING AREAS. THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER HAS
RECEIVED THE GREATEST RAINFALL RECENTLY AND IS THEREFORE MOST
SENSITIVE TO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...YOU ARE ADVISED TO KEEP ABREAST
OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
OR WARNINGS WHICH MAY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, THE OFFICIAL VOICE OF THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE, OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV, FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES.

MUNDSCHENK