Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Gaylord, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1015 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2003

COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NOW PRESSING
THROUGH THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. FORCING CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON THE WARM SIDE OF FRONTOGENETIC MAX
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...INTERSECTING BAND OF CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM NORTHERN WI ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI (QUITE A
BIT OF ACCAS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING). THUS...DESPITE RELATIVELY
DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION RADAR PLOTS SHOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FLARING UP A BIT OVER WI AND NORTHERN LOWER MI
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE DOOR PENINSULA EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL LK HURON.

QUESTION FOR THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY CAN BE GENERATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO AUGMENT ONGOING
(ELEVATED) SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS THE FRONT PRESSES THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MI.

CURRENT TIMING BRINGS FRONT SOUTH INTO THE M-72 CORRIDOR THEN ACROSS
ARENAC/GLADWIN COUNTIES BY 5 PM OR SO. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH 78/64 SFC PARCEL GENERATING SBCAPES OF 1200 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON...AND LAPS PLOT ALREADY DEPICTING 500-1000 J/KG AS OF
9 AM. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT
COMBINED WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALREADY OVER THE AREA PLAN ON
KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF M-72...AND EVEN LINGERING INTO THE EVENING IN THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES. NORTH OF M-72...EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDER TO
BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED (ALREADY DONE IN E UPPER MI) AS THE FRONT
SLIPS THROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL ADJUST GRIDS/ZONES
ACCORDINGLY.

SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND FIELDS 35 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH 500 MB AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 12 K FEET. BUT OF
COURSE WILL MONITOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.

.APX...NONE.

ADAM

MIZ008-015>036-041-042-181100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1104 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH 700 PM...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF M-72. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/APX (ALL LOWER CASE)

ADAM