Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1020 PM CDT FRI 18 APR 2003

RADAR EARLIER THIS EVENING WAS SHOWING A SW/NE ORIENTED DRYLINE
RAPIDLY MOVING TO THE WEST WITH MOISTURE MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST
ZONES. MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP THIS MOISTURE SURGE WELL AND FEEL
ALL GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS ARE TOO LOW...THUS BUMPED THEM UP FOR ALL BUT
THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE DRYLINE MAY NOT REACH.

OF MORE CONCERN IS CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE
DRYLINE. AS STATED EARLIER...OUR SE ZONES WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY DUE TO AN UPPER JET MAX
AND 7H TROF MOVING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. THUS HAVE UPPED POPS
MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FOR TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
WATCHFUL EYE FOR POTENTIAL OF TSTMS GOING SEVERE WITH HAIL BEING
PRIMARY THREAT AS WBZ IS NEAR 9000 FEET.

HENNIG

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 00Z
TONIGHT.

INHERITED FCST IS ON TRACK. AS THE FIRST OF TWO SW TROUGHS MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
MANLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AS STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ON THE LOW LEVEL JET. SFC MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE ERN COUNTIES TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS BACK
TO OUR WEST. FOR TOMORROW A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AND
SLIDE INTO WRN OK AS THE SECOND...STRONGER SW TROUGH APPROACHES.  AS
IT DOES A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD INCREASING OUR RAIN
CHANCES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTM THE NE PORTION OF
THE CWA STANDS TO RECEIVE THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  SOME
CONCERN REGARDING SVR POTENTIAL BUT THINK THE PROBABILITY WILL BE
LOW WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT WELL EAST IN OK.  HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW ARE TRICKY DUE TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SLOWING THE TIMING. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED A CATEGORY. THE
FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE CWA BY TOMORROW EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS INTO OK. PRECIP ALSO SHOULD CEASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THAT
OCCURS.

SHORT-WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODIFY.  ON TUESDAY THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST INCREASING THE POSSIBLE FOR
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AND SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  IT
SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE ENDING PERIODS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

FCSTID = 05

AMARILLO    45 67 36 64 / 10 40 30 00
BEAVER      44 61 38 61 / 20 40 50 00
BOISE CITY  38 59 33 63 / 10 40 40 00
BORGER      48 64 39 64 / 20 40 30 00
BOYS RANCH  43 64 38 66 / 10 40 30 00
CANYON      45 68 40 67 / 10 40 20 00
CLARENDON   49 73 42 68 / 20 30 20 00
DALHART     41 61 34 63 / 10 40 30 00
GUYMON      42 60 36 62 / 20 40 40 00
HEREFORD    44 68 39 69 / 10 30 10 00
LIPSCOMB    46 63 40 62 / 20 40 50 00
PAMPA       47 66 41 65 / 20 40 30 00
SHAMROCK    51 73 42 66 / 20 40 30 00
WELLINGTON  52 74 43 68 / 30 30 30 00

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-191100-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
856 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CANYON TEXAS TO CANADIAN TEXAS. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS...
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

GOEHRING