Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1115 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2003

MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WORKING SOUTHWARD. UNTIL THEN...NEW CONVECTION WILL BE
ELEVATED DUE TO THE CAPPING INVERSION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH.
MODIFIED THE POPS TO INDICATE NUMEROUS OVER THE NORTH AND SCATTERED
COVERAGE SOUTH. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

FCSTR ID = 08
========================================================
345 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2003

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WET DAY AND NIGHT SHAPING UP FOR PNHDLS AS
PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. PRECIP ON RADAR AT THIS TIME
MAINLY DUE TO COMBINATION OF WEAK LIFT AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE
REFIRING AGAIN LATER THIS AFTN AS ANOTHER RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROF HEADS SEWD FROM THE ROCKIES AND THRU THE FCST AREA BEFORE 12Z
FRI. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SWD
ACROSS FCST AREA AS WELL. THESE FEATURES COUPLED WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
TSTMS LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SVR THREAT HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK
TO ONLY INCLUDE ROUGHLY WRN HALF OF THE AREA...AND MAY BE MITIGATED
SOMEWHAT BY LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING IF CLOUDS DO NOT BREAK. THUS...
DO NOT PLAN ON MENTIONING IT IN UPCOMING ZONE PCKG. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN POSE A THREAT AND WILL HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR TODAY AND TNGT. REFER TO QPFERD AND DAY 1 QPF
FOR MORE INFO. TEMPS TO BE HELD DOWN AGAIN TODAY THANKS TO PRECIP...
UPSLOPE FLOW...AND CLOUD COVER.

SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS SHOULD BE E OF PNHDLS BY EARLY FRI WITH
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND...SO HAVE REMOVED PRECIP CHC FOR FRI AND LEFT
SLGT CHC IN FRI NIGHT IN THE EVENT MORE STORMS MOVE ESEWD TOWARDS
THE AREA FROM THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF
TO TRACK ESEWD TOWARDS AND THRU SCNTRL HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGT CHC SAT...AND
MODERATE CHC SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE E OF THE AREA BY
EARLY SUN WITH COOL SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE N AND NW. DRIER
AIR EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH NO POPS.

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRY TO SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL FLOW MAY
BECOME A BIT MORE WESTERLY OR SWRLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
A REDEVELOPMENT OF LEESIDE TROF...WARMER TEMPS...AND LESS IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP. PREVIOUS PCKG COVERS THIS WELL IN EXTENDED PERIODS
AND HAVE RETAINED THESE IDEAS. PRELIM VALUES FOLLOW.

FCSTID = 02

AMARILLO    70 51 76 54 / 70 60 10 20
BEAVER      67 49 75 56 / 70 60 10 20
BOISE CITY  67 47 75 52 / 70 60 10 20
BORGER      69 51 76 55 / 70 60 10 20
BOYS RANCH  70 49 76 54 / 70 60 10 20
CANYON      72 51 77 54 / 70 60 10 20
CLARENDON   72 56 77 57 / 70 60 10 20
DALHART     68 47 76 52 / 70 60 10 20
GUYMON      67 48 75 54 / 70 60 10 20
HEREFORD    72 51 77 53 / 70 60 10 20
LIPSCOMB    68 53 76 56 / 70 60 10 20
PAMPA       69 53 76 55 / 70 60 10 20
SHAMROCK    70 58 77 57 / 70 60 10 20
WELLINGTON  71 59 77 58 / 70 60 10 20

.AMA...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES 001>020.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES 001>003.

ANDRADE

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-061100-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA IS SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM TEXLINE...TO DUMAS...TO
JUST EAST OF AMARILLO. THE MAIN THREAT IN THIS AREA WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVENT...SO TORNADOES ARE A THREAT AS
WELL. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...WILL HELP FOCUS ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT HOURS. ELSEWHERE...GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS...SOME CONTAINING
HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING SEVERE...AS WELL THE CONTINUED
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY AGAIN BE NECESSARY ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

FOX