Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
243 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2003

ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST OUTSIDE THE WINDOW OVER EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CARSON COUNTY. AMA HAS REACHED A RECORD MAX OF 103 THIS
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHOWS UP WELL ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. WILL RAISE POPS TO 40S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH FOR TONIGHT.
CENTER OF 595 DM RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST NM PER LATEST RUC.
MINOR SURFACE LOW NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH WEAKLY FORCED
BOUNDARY FROM PERRYTON TO DALHART. INSTABILITY INCREASES NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH LAPSE DATA SUGGESTING CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND
LI/S TO MINUS 6 DEGREES. HAVE ALSO WARMED MINS TONIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BASED ON PERSISTENCE.

CONSENSUS FORM GFS/EUROPEAN AND CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS WEAK/MINOR
SHORTWAVES WILL PROPAGATE OVER AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES RIDGE
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. TIMING THE WAVES WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS WEEK. HAVE INTRODUCED NIGHTTIME 20 POPS TO
THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
INTRODUCED 20 POPS CENTRAL AND WEST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT BUT
LEFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY AND CONTINUED WARM/HOT FOR NOW.

FCSTID = SLATTERY

AMARILLO    72 96 66 96 / 30 20 20 10
BEAVER      72 96 68 99 / 40 20 20 10
BOISE CITY  67 94 62 95 / 40 20 20 10
BORGER      70 97 70 99 / 30 20 20 10
BOYS RANCH  68 97 68 99 / 30 20 20 10
CANYON      72 95 67 96 / 30 20 20 10
CLARENDON   73 98 69 98 / 30 20 20 10
DALHART     67 95 65 95 / 40 20 20 10
GUYMON      69 95 68 99 / 40 20 20 10
HEREFORD    71 98 67 96 / 30 20 20 10
LIPSCOMB    72 95 69 97 / 40 20 20 10
PAMPA       71 97 69 96 / 30 20 20 10
SHAMROCK    73 97 70 97 / 30 20 20 10
WELLINGTON  73 96 72 97 / 30 20 20 10

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-051115-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON...AS HOT DRY WINDS OF AROUND
10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL COMBINE WITH LOWERING AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS ABOVE
40 MPH. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A KENTON OKLAHOMA TO
LIPSCOMB TEXAS LINE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING FOR THE OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

SCHNEIDER