Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
250 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2003

UPDATE DISC...UPDATED TO INCLUDE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES EXC
HAMILTON AND NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES...AND INCLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.  THUNDERSTORM CELLS MOVING
ALONG A LINE IN LITCHFIELD AND SARATOGA COUNTIES HAVE PRODUCED
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WERE ISSUED
IN THOSE TWO COUNTIES.

NO CHANGES BEYOND FIRST PERIOD.

ALY...FF WATCH ALL ZONES EXC NYZ032-033.

RCK

PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING...
DISC...

.SHORT TERM...WEAK FRNTL BNDRY FM SW MAINE TO WK SFC LOW NEAR
ALB...HAS BEEN FOCUS OF CONVECTION THAT HAS LINGERED INTO THE EARLY
MRNG HRS. OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS THE SFC LOW WILL PROPAGATE EAST AND
THE BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTH. OVER THE REST OF THE FCA -SHRA AND
TSRA HAVE ENDED. TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TD REMAIN IN THE
70S...WHILE IN THE 60S TO ITS NW. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NW
ZNS...BUT OTHERWISE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPLY SHOULD ENSURE
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS.

SFC HIGH OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST TDY...HWVR ACROSS S
QUEBEC IS ANOTHER CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND COOLER SFC HIGH SEPARATED
FROM THE GRTLKS ONE BY FRONT FM JAMES BAY TO ST LAWRENCE VLY. THIS
POCKET OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST HWVR. THE GRTLKS HIGH IS ACTUALLY VERY WARM...AND DRY. IT WILL
BRING HOT AIRMASS FM UPPER PLAINS ACROSS ONTARIO...THEN INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MEANWHILE OLD SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS S NEW ENG AND NY S
TIER AND WITH RICH LLVL MOISTURE ACROSS THESE AREAS WL PROVIDE FUEL
ONCE AGAIN TO THE DAILY OUTBREAK OF -SHRA AND TSRA. HOWEVER TDYS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE S TIER OF ZONES...LESS
TROPICAL IN NATURE AND SCT IN CHARACTER.

.LONGER TERM...RIDGE WILL BUILD AT ALL LEVELS OVER MUCH OF AMERICA
TNGT INTO THURSDAY. BY THU NT 1000-500HPA THICKNESS WILL BE OVER
570 ACROSS FCA...WITH EVEN HOTTER AIR STREAMING INTO RGN FRI. TEMPS
WILL BE WELL IN THE 80S THU...AND NR 90 FRI.  WITH SO MUCH MOISTURE
IN THE GROUND...IT WILL ACT AS A BREAK KEEPING THEM FROM SOURING
WELL INTO THE 90S...AND INSTEAD JUST INCREASING THE HUMIDITY IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. FRIDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST...A
TROF FORMS OVER QUEBEC.  FRI NT AND SAT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT IN TWO WEEKS DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING A ROUND
OF -SHRA AND TSRA AND USHERING IN A COOLER DRY AMASS FOR SUN...AND
FEATURING BRIGHT SUNSHINE.

.EXTNDD...NEXT WEEK REGION IS ON S EDGE OF WESTERLIES AS UPPER TROFS
USHER IN A CDFNT FOLLOWED BY A DRY AND COOLER SFC HIGH...THEN IT
SLIDES OFFSHORE...RETURN FLOW BRINGS TEMPS BACK TO 80S...THEN NEXT
SHORT WV REPEATS THE PATTERN...WITH A CYCLE OF ABOUT 3 DAYS.

IN SHORT AFTER THIS AFTERNOON THE STEAMBATH...WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS OVER.

.HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE AROUND THIS
AFTN...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND
MOST CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH OF ALB. IF AREAS THAT HAVE HAD LARGE
AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS GET HIT AGAIN THERE COULD STILL BE
SOME LOCALIZED OR ISOLD FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF ALBANY.
BEYOND THAT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH ONLY VERY SLIGHT CHC
OF -SHRA OR TSRA...GIVING THE AREA SOME MUCH NEEDED DRYING OUT TIME.

.ALY...NONE.

SNYDER

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-141045-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

.DAY ONE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE RAPID
LOCALIZED RISES ON STREAMS IF THEY OCCUR IN AREAS THAT HAVE HAD
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PREVIOUS 2 DAYS. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THOUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SNYDER